Something for (almost) nothing?

"There is a very brief window in which mostly American hyperscale data centres could massively expand renewable energy generation in New Zealand, at their own expense, to the country’s much broader benefit.

"I worry, though, that the country will miss the opportunity. ...

"Right now, hyperscale datacentres are willing to pay a high premium for immediacy. Grid connections in the US can take years. Paying more for electricity via standalone generators off-grid makes sense when compute *now* is really valuable.

"If NZ could be the place delivering a rapid yes or no on new generation, with processes running a couple months rather than up-to-years, unbelievable amounts of money could drop here and build out generation capacity.

"That window will not be open forever. ...

"Hyperscalers are willing to pay a lot if they can get access to energy in a hurry, without large fishhooks along the way. ... Over the past two years, the scale of that opportunity has increased considerably. ... At the scale at which these investments are made internationally, the New Zealand Government’s current support for developing next-generation supercritical geothermal generation looks like spare change.

"The companies that would fund the energy and data centre buildout could very plausibly fund a hastening of current work on next-generation geothermal.

"If the work on supercritical geothermal pans out, the country would have near-limitless, low-cost electricity for generations to come. Some of it would power data centres; the rest of it could power everything else....

"All of it could be funded by the companies who *right now* are willing to pay a substantial premium for power that can be online quickly enough to matter in the current AI race. Whether or not they are right about the stakes in that race, more generation here would be valuable.

"The opportunity is real, but the largest part of it is time-limited."

~ Eric Cramptom from his op-ed 'The Americans are on the march! Will Wellington welcome them again?'