"The president is not a king, and is not entitled to practically unlimited power to impose tariffs. The Supreme Court was right to deny it to him."

"The ruling against Trump’s tariffs is a major victory for the constitutional separation of powers, rule of law, and millions of American consumers and businesses.

"In a 6–3 decision yesterday, the Supreme Court rightly ruled that, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, the president does not have the power to 'impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time.' The ruling is a major victory for the constitutional separation of powers, rule of law, and millions of American consumers and businesses harmed by these tariffs.

"This decision spared America from a dangerous, unconstitutional path. Under President Trump’s interpretation of the law, the president would have had nearly unlimited tariff authority, similar to that of an absolute monarch. That undermines basic constitutional principles. The Framers of the Constitution had sought to ensure that the president would not be able to repeat the abuses of English kings, who imposed taxes without legislative authorisation. ...

"In addition to upholding the separation of powers, the decision is a victory for the rule of law, which requires that major legal rules be clearly established by legislation, not subject to the whims of one person. Since first imposing the Liberation Day tariffs, Trump has repeatedly suspended and reimposed various elements of them. He has also imposed or threatened to impose IEEPA tariffs for a variety of other purposes, such as countering the supposed threat of foreign-made movies, punishing Brazil for prosecuting its former president for attempting to launch a coup to stay in power after losing an election, and most recently castigating eight European nations opposed to his plan to seize Greenland. Such gyrations undermine the stable legal environment essential for businesses, consumers, and investors, and create endless opportunities to reward cronies and punish political adversaries ...

"The administration may try to reimpose many of the tariffs using other statutes, such as Section 232 and Section 301. But those laws have various constraintsthat would make it hard for the president to simply impose unlimited tariffs, as he could have done under his interpretation of IEEPA. As Chief Justice Roberts noted in his opinion yesterday, “When Congress has delegated its tariff powers, it has done so in explicit terms, and subject to strict limits,” and these others statutes all have limitations on the amount and duration of the tariffs they authorize, plus “demanding procedural prerequisites.” If Trump or a future president does claim that those other statutes give him unlimited power, tariffs imposed based on any such theory would themselves be subject to legal challenges. Yesterday’s decision signals that a majority of the Court is seriously skeptical of claims of sweeping executive tariff authority.

"Following the release of the Court’s decision, Trump announced his intention to use Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose 10 percent global tariffs. But Section 122 authorizes tariffs only in response to 'fundamental international payments problems” that cause 'large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits' (which are not the same as trade deficits used to justify the IEEPA Liberation Day tariffs), or “an imminent or significant depreciation of the dollar,' or if they are needed to cooperate with other countries in addressing an 'international balance-of-payments disequilibrium.' And Section 122 tariffs can remain in force for only up to 150 days, unless extended by Congress.

"The president is not a king, and is not entitled to practically unlimited power to impose tariffs. The Supreme Court was right to deny it to him."

~ co-litigant Ilya Somin on 'How the Supreme Court Spared America'

REUTERS: ''Embarrassment to their families': Trump denounces Supreme Court justices after tariffs ruling'
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump lashed out on Friday at the U.S. Supreme Court and the six justices who struck down his signature global tariffs - including two he appointed - in remarkably personal terms while hailing the three justices who backed him.
"Although previous presidents have sharply criticised Supreme Court rulings against them, Trump's lengthy tirade to reporters at the White House stood out for its contemptuous tone, as well as the personal nature of his scorn and praise...."

 

"Today’s ruling reinforces a basic constitutional principle: emergency powers are not a blank check for economic policymaking. The Court correctly recognized that tariffs function as taxes on Americans, and that authority belongs to Congress, not the executive acting alone under a perpetual state of emergency. Despite dire warnings, there was never going to be a financial crisis if these tariffs were struck down.
    "Ending the IEEPA tariffs restores predictability and reduces the uncertainty that has weighed on investment and supply chains. Businesses and consumers now get a reprieve from a costly policy mistake. Far from leaving the United States defenceless, the decision strengthens the institutional credibility that matters most when real emergencies arise."

~ Kyle Handley, Cato Adjunct Trade Scholar

"I rise today to address [Supreme Court Justice] Neil Gorsuch's concurrence.
    "The dude stuck a big red hot poker into the nether regions of no fewer than SIX of his colleagues.
    "For Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson (I’m paraphrasing, and tendentiously so, but it’s more fun): “You folks supported every cockamamie ‘emergency’ theory the Dems could come up. You gave the Biden administration clearly unconstitutional and unjustified powers during COVID, and you accepted a definition of ‘emergency’ so encompassing that the US has apparently been in an ‘emergency’ since before the Declaration of Independence. Now that a Republican is office, you have belatedly discovered that an declaration of an emergency is more plausible if there is actually some emergency. You people are clowns, and you should be embarrassed.” (Remember, these three are Justices that Gorsuch is JOINING, in his opinion; they are on his side!)
    "For Alito, Kavanaugh, and Thomas (again, I’m not quoting, not even close): “You folks opposed very action the Biden administration tried to take. Sure, the Bidenites claimed excessive powers. But COVID was at least plausibly an emergency, with both an urgent timeline and potentially dangerous outcomes. Yet you still had this very restrictive doctrine you kept parroting, about how the President can’t do things. That meant that you were basically playing “Calvinball,” with made up rules for why Democrats can’t do things. And now you say none of those rules (some of which were admittedly dumb) don’t apply when a Republicanis in office? And when there is no conceivable justification for invoking an emergency? You people are clowns, and you should be embarrassed.” (In fairness to Gorsuch, Kavanaugh in particular wrote an opinion so bizarrely self-contradictory that anyone would have had this reaction privately. But to put it in your concurrence? Damn!)
    "UPDATE: An afterthought: IEEPA was passed with a 'legislative veto.' Whatever else is true, the implied delegation was much less than Kavanaugh is claiming in his nonsensical screed."

~ Michael Munger from his post 'Gorsuch! A concurrence for the ages'

"Today the Supreme Court did something simple and radical at the same time: it read and applied the Constitution. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise a President to impose tariffs. Article I vests the taxing power—explicitly including duties and tariffs—in Congress alone. The Executive has no inherent peacetime authority to reach into “the pockets of the people.” If Congress wishes to delegate tariff authority, it must do so clearly and within limits, because that is the structure of our constitutional republic.
    "This ruling is not about whether tariffs are good policy. It is about who has the lawful authority to impose them. The Court reaffirmed a basic principle: the power to tax belongs to the legislature, and it cannot be assumed, implied, or creatively inferred by the Executive. If we are to remain a government of laws rather than men, structural limits must bind even when they are inconvenient. Today, thankfully, the Court enforced that boundary." 

~ Nicholas Provenzo

"The court’s decision is welcome news for American importers, the United States economy, and the rule of law, but there’s much more work to be done. Most immediately, the federal government must refund the tens of billions of dollars in customs duties that it illegally collected from American companies pursuant to an “IEEPA tariff authority” it never actually had. That refund process could be easy, but it appears more likely that more litigation and paperwork will be required – a particularly unfair burden for smaller importers that lack the resources to litigate tariff refund claims, yet never did anything wrong.
    "Even without IEEPA, moreover, other U.S. laws and the Trump administration’s repeated promises all but ensure that much higher tariffs will remain the norm, damaging the economy and foreign relations in the process. Implementing new tariff protection will take a little longer than it did in 2025 and, perhaps, will be a little more predictable. Overall, however, the tariff beatings will continue until Congress reclaims some of its constitutional authority over U.S. trade policy and checks the administration’s worst tariff impulses." 

~ Scott Lincicome, Cato Vice President of General Economics and Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies

"This expansive use of presidential 'emergency' powers to

impose taxes without representation would have made King

George III blush -- and offend the very sensibilities of

liberty that once sent tea into Boston Harbor." 

~ Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch in his concurring decision

.....aaaaand,

"Totalitarian and authoritarian leaders seem to always presume that they should have and try to assert unlimited power, to do what they want, when they want, as they want, even when guided by any emotional whim that crosses their mind. And lash out at anything and anyone who presumes to say otherwise."

"Trump asserted that he could impose tariffs when he wanted, on any country he wanted, and to any extent he wanted. And could do so guided by any changing whim when some foreign leader did or said anything he did not like and was 'offended' by. And when the Supreme Court said 'No!' And took his power to do so away, he lashed out at them in rude and crude ways in response. And said he would try to keep doing it in different ways." 

~ Richard Ebeling

... aaaaaaaand, "it took less than 24 hours and Mad King Donald directly defied the Supreme Court."

"[Fri]day's ruling held that IEEPA does not authorise ANY tariff power. It was explicit in doing so and rebuked Trump's previous exercises.
"Late last night, Trump issued a new executive order reinstating the suspension of the de minimis tariff exemption on mail order packages. The new order reimposes these tariffs by using IEEPA in the face of the explicit direction of the Supreme Court.
"This is grounds for impeachment." 

~ Phil Magness

CATO: 'The Supreme Court Got It Right on IEEPA—But Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet'

"But the end of the IEEPA tariffs does not mean an end to unilateral trade policy. The administration has already been eyeing other, largely overlooked statutes that could produce a similar result.

Section 122

Faced with a possible Supreme Court defeat over IEEPA, administration officials have been readying alternative authorities under which to impose tariffs. One such statute is Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The provision empowers the president to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits through import surcharges of up to 15 percent, import quotas, or some combination of the two. That surely holds considerable appeal for a president who has consistently (and mistakenly) railed against the alleged dangers of US trade deficits.

As Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute and I explained in December in Foreign Policy, the administration could replicate most of the IEEPA tariff structure through Section 122 in short order. Countries currently facing rates above 15 percent would see some reduction, but for every other country, the hit would be nearly identical. And crucially, Section 122 doesn’t require the lengthy investigations that other trade statutes demand. The president could act fast.

But there’s a catch: Section 122 tariffs expire after 150 days unless Congress votes to extend them. How much of a constraint this is, however, remains to be seen. If Congress declines to act, the administration could, at least in theory, allow the tariffs to lapse, declare a new balance-of-payments emergency, and restart the clock. The maneuver would raise serious separation-of-powers concerns, but nothing in the statute clearly forbids it.

With the statute never previously invoked, there’s no judicial precedent clarifying its limits.

Section 338

There’s also Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act) that, like Section 122, has never been deployed. It authorizes the president to impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on imports from any country that “discriminates” against US commerce as compared to other nations.

The statute is remarkably short and vague. It assigns a role to the US International Trade Commission (USITC), which has a duty to “ascertain and at all times to be informed” whether discrimination is occurring and to “bring the matter to the attention of the President, together with recommendations.”

But whether this functions as a procedural prerequisite or merely an advisory channel is unclear. The statute separately authorizes the president to impose tariffs “whenever he shall find as a fact” that discrimination exists. Does that language empower the president to act unilaterally, or must he await Commission findings? The text doesn’t say.

The Congressional Research Service has suggested that Section 338 falls into a category of tariff authorities that “do not contain” requirements for a federal agency to “conduct an investigation and make certain findings before tariffs may be imposed.” But this interpretation has never been tested by any administration or any court.

And what counts as discrimination in the first place? The law doesn’t say with any precision. Proving discrimination could be challenging when targeting World Trade Organization members bound by most-favored-nation requirements. Or would it? The administration could argue that any country maintaining tariffs on American goods—or any country with trade practices the president dislikes—is “discriminating” against US commerce.

The United States threatened to invoke Section 338 several times during the 1950s to advance foreign policy goals, but never followed through. The statute hasn’t been meaningfully tested in modern courts, which means its boundaries remain undefined. Would courts defer to an aggressive interpretation of the president’s authority? Would they require USITC involvement? No one knows. For an administration intent on maximizing its discretion, that ambiguity could be a feature, not a bug.

The Underlying Problem

Unfettered use of Sections 122 and 338—along with better-known statutes like Sections 301 and 232—could essentially recreate the IEEPA predicament. In practice, this means the president can continue reshaping tax policy and the business environment on a whim, redistributing hundreds of billions of dollars and imposing pervasive uncertainty, without express congressional authorization.

The Court did important work by reining in the misuse of IEEPA. But judicial intervention can only go so far. Congress spent decades handing off its constitutional trade authority to the executive branch, and these delegations remain largely intact. Until lawmakers reclaim some of that authority and add serious procedural safeguards, the risk of arbitrary tariffs will continue.

The Court did its job. Now Congress needs to do its own.

"Atheism isn't a belief"

"The usual way of defending atheism is wrong. The defence is not: 'I don't need a reason to accept atheism, but they need a reason to accept theism.' The deepest explanation is: atheism isn't a belief; it isn't something you accept. Atheism is [simply] the refusal to accept nonsense stories.

"It's not that atheism asserts a negative about the world; rather, it's that atheism is a negative about consciousness---i.e., about accepting something.

"Analogy: you don't need a reason not to buy a given good; you need a reason to buy it.

"The defenders of God and the arbitrary are like salesmen who say, 'You have to prove to me you shouldn't buy this.' "

~ Harry Binswanger from his post 'The burden of proof is on him who claims to know'

"It’s training to be an entrepreneur, and an employer—not an employee."

Q: Governments and central banks have inflated asset prices for decades—making housing, education, and healthcare unaffordable for many.

Is the 'system' designed to turn Millennials and Gen Z into lifelong renters and debt-serfs? Is there a way out?

Doug Casey: It’s a natural consequence of Statism.

First of all, taxes are high and have been increasing for decades. After taxes, you have less money left over to save. And if you do try to save, inflation eats away at the dollars that you put in banks or investments. Worse than that, welfare and government benefits make saving feel unnecessary for many people. They feel they don’t need as much because the cradle-to-grave welfare state will cover them. There’s a reason why Klaus Schwab famously said, 'You’ll own nothing and be happy.'

A lot of people believe it. This feeling is abetted by schooling, where everyone is inculcated with this collectivist meme. On top of that, the rich are viewed as parasites. And who wants to be a parasite?

This is all caused by State intervention in the economy. Schools almost always teach students that the State is their friend. It’s not; it’s their enemy. ....

Q: We’re seeing a collision between AI/automation and a credential-heavy job market. Which parts of today’s white-collar economy do you think are most fragile?

Doug Casey: .... The bright side is that while AI and robotics will destroy huge numbers of jobs—starting now—they’ll also level the playing field. A person of less than average intelligence can have AI do things for him that he might otherwise be unable to do. A further benefit is that the world doesn’t need paper pushers and cubicle dwellers who are sitting around doing marginally productive labor. Very much like the world no longer needed people working like drones in textile mills 200 years ago, at the start of the Industrial Revolution.

While AI is going to create some major problems in the short run, it’s going to be a very good thing after those bumps in the road. Just like the Industrial Revolution itself created problems while vastly improving the world. ....

Q: What should a 25-year-old do to build real, durable earning power in the next 5–10 years?

Doug Casey: Ayn Rand answered that question in a speech I heard 40 years ago. When asked, she said: 'The best way to help the poor is not to be one of them.'

I confronted this problem with my friend Matt Smith when we wrote 'The Preparation.' The book explains why young people should avoid college. In fact, it urges them to treat college like the poison that it now is, showing how college has become a serious detriment in almost every way. More importantly, we describe what young men should do instead during the four years between 18 and 22, a time which is critically important, but generally wasted.

We demonstrate—exactly—how a young man can qualify himself with the equivalent of a BA, a BS, and elements of an MBA. That’s in addition to learning practical things in a hands-on way. We divide the four years into 16 quarters. The student will learn everything from flying a plane to sailing a boat around Cape Horn to operating heavy equipment. He’ll qualify in welding and metalwork in Canada. Cooking at a professional level in Italy. He’ll be farming in one quarter and building a house in the next. He’ll learn martial arts skills in Thailand, as well as shooting and scuba. You get the idea. It’s a productive and busy four years.

The critical thing, since we don’t know how the world is going to evolve because of AI, is to become a Renaissance man, enabling students to do anything and go anywhere. To avoid trying to climb a greasy corporate ladder, but build a web where you can reach out in any direction. That’s necessary in the world of AI. It’s training to be an entrepreneur, and an employer—not an employee."

~ from an interview with investor 'Doug Casey on Why Millennials and Gen Z are Trapped by Debt, Inflation, and Broken Promises

"Everyone wants growth. But will ... they have the courage to upset vested interests on their own side?"

"The problem is that politics is not about good intentions, but trade-offs and results. Everyone wants growth. But will ... they have the courage to upset vested interests on their own side? The government still has promising changes in the pipeline on housing and infrastructure. But elsewhere? ...

"[H]ere’s [a] strategy, one advocated in a fascinating essay from 1989. The author opens by arguing that 'politicians tend, worldwide, to avoid structural reform until it is forced upon them by economic stagnation, a collapse of their currency or some other costly economic and social disaster. Politicians tend to close their minds as long as they can … because they believe that decisive action must inevitably bring political calamity upon their governments.'

"But the writer goes on to make precisely the opposite case: 'Political survival depends on making quality decisions; compromised policies lead to voter dissatisfaction; letting things drift is political suicide.'

"Voters, he argues, 'ultimately place a higher value on enhancing their medium-term prospects than on action that looks successful short-term but which sacrifices larger and more enduring future gains … There is a deep well of realism and common sense among the ordinary people of the community. They want politicians to have the guts and the vision to deliver sustainable gains in living standards.'

"Strategically, he also advises pursuing reform in 'quantum leaps' rather than small steps; 'otherwise the interest groups will have time to mobilise and drag you down.'

"The whole 35-page paper, 'The Politics of Structural Reform',' is worth reading, not least because so much strikes a chord today ('Inadequate politicians see instant popularity as the key to power. If their rating slips, they feel threatened. They look for policies with instant appeal to create continuous public bliss').

"But what is most striking is that the writer is a Labour politician: Roger Douglas, who, as minister of finance — equivalent to [the UK's] chancellor — led New Zealand through one of the most bruising periods of free-market reform in any nation’s history (a programme known as Rogernomics) and saw his party re-elected with an enhanced vote share at the end of it.

"Starmer’s Labour came to power by taking the opposite of Douglas’s advice. It told the public that spending would rise, growth would rise but taxes and borrowing would not. That no one would have to feel any pain. And when that turned out to be a lie, it got hammered for it.

"Wherever the government goes next, it is unlikely to be down a path of Douglas-esque, business-friendly radicalism. But I believe — I have to believe — that the public will still reward politicians who are honest about our country’s problems and visibly try their damnedest to fix them. Because if not, what hope have we got?"

~ Robert Colville from his London Times column 'https://archive.fo/E7HXi'

It's (still) all about the entrepreneur

"The 'AI will code for us' idea always skips over the 90% of the job that isn't coding.

"The real work is translating a vague business need into a precise, testable system. It's architecting something that won't fall over in 6 months. It's debugging a problem that only appears under a specific, bizarre set of conditions.

"Even with a perfect code generator, you still need someone who understands the problem deeply enough to tell it what to build. That part isn't getting automated."

~ Selim Erünkut commenting on the alleged obsolescence of coding [Emphasis mine.]

"Is the concept of personal responsibility foreign to Maori? I don’t believe it is.

"The latest 'Salvation Army State of the Nation Report 2026' presents a litany of excuses for the sorry state of New Zealand’s social statistics, in particular, those relating to Maori. ...

"'The over representation of Māori tamariki and rangatahi in state care [is said to] reflect ... the enduring impacts of colonisation and breaches of Te Tiriti o Waitangi ... disproportionate inequities are due to current systems and the lasting impacts of colonisation ... and institutional racism...'
    '[T]angata whenua experiencing housing insecurity or homelessness, ... disrupts connections to te ao Māori and limits the ability to exercise tino rangatiratanga. ...'
    'Colonial policies, land alienation and the imposition of state justice systems that do not represent partnership have had long‑lasting effects that continue to shape Māori experiences in the criminal justice system today.' ...

"The [report's] 'Maori lens' response run to pages. ... 

"[I]s the concept of personal responsibility foreign to Maori? I don’t believe it is. ...

"In the face of this report the best response the government could make is to defund the Salvation Army for being part of the problem."

~ Lindsay Mitchell from her post 'A litany of excuses'

Your complete five-minute summary of yet another round of 'negotiations' in Geneva

"I’ll save you five minutes of your time today so you don’t have to read the news about yet another round of 'negotiations' in Geneva.

"[First,] Ukraine is still willing to agree to absolutely any ceasefires, compromises, a halt to the war, a freeze along the front line, and all possible and impossible mineral deals to please Donald Trump -- but it is not willing to capitulate and be destroyed by Russia. 

"[Second,] Russia still refuses any ceasefires, any compromises, any halt to the war -- and agrees to nothing short of Ukrainian surrender, with ever-growing demands leading ultimately to Ukraine’s destruction. 

"And [third] the U.S. administration still has neither the power to force Ukraine to surrender, nor the conscience or the wisdom to stop this idiotic charade with Putin and instead to begin pressuring Russia and arming Ukraine so that Ukraine can make Russia accept a stable and lasting peace. 

"[In conclusion:] The parties agreed on nothing and will meet again at yet another meaningless 'summit' in a month, so that Russia can continue buying time and making a fool of Donald Trump while continuing to destroy Ukraine. 

"You’re welcome."

~ Ilya Ponomarenko

On the 'living wage'

"Wanting to afford rent and food on 40 hours isn’t unreasonable. But declaring it should happen doesn’t make it happen. 

"Affordability isn’t created by slogans. It’s created by productivity, supply, and competition. 

"If housing is expensive, ask why supply is restricted. If food is expensive, ask why production and distribution are burdened. If wages are stagnant, ask what’s blocking entry level opportunity. 

"You can’t legislate 'I should be able to afford it.' You either remove barriers that lower costs and raise productivity, or you shift the cost to someone else. And when you shift the cost, you don’t make things cheaper. You just move the bill. 

"The real question isn’t whether your desire is reasonable. It’s whether the policies being proposed actually increase supply and opportunity… or quietly reduce both while promising relief."

~ Rock Chartrand

'Education Through Recreation'

"A master in the art of living draws no sharp distinction between his work and his play, his labour and his leisure, his mind and his body, his education and his recreation. He hardly knows which is which. He simply pursues his vision of excellence through whatever he is doing and leaves others to determine whether he is working or playing. To himself he always seems to be doing both. Enough for him that he does it well."

~ Lawrence Pearsall Jacks from his 1932 book Education Through Recreation (pp 1-2)

"Since then, poverty has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded."

 

"While the share of people in extreme poverty has been falling since the 19th century, the total number didn’t begin to decline [at scale] until the late 20th century, when [communism collapsed and] rapid economic growth spread worldwide.

"Since then, poverty has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded."

~ post by Human Progress

“The champions of socialism call themselves progressives..."

“The champions of socialism call themselves progressives, but they recommend a system which is characterised by rigid observance of routine and by a resistance to every kind of improvement.

"They call themselves liberals, but they are intent upon abolishing liberty.”

They call themselves democrats, but they yearn for dictatorship.

"They call themselves revolutionaries, but they want to make the government omnipotent.

"They promise the blessings of the Garden of Eden, but they plan to transform the world into a gigantic post office. Every man but one a subordinate clerk in a bureau.”

~ Ludwig Von Mises from his 1944 book Bureaucracy

"This should be basic teaching for school children. And their teachers..."

"Logic is the art of non-contradictory identification."

~ Ayn Rand from 'Galt's Speech' in her book For the New Intellectual

"What is the actual structure of human reasoning when we engage in deduction?"

~ Leonard Peikoff from Lecture 15 of his lecture series 'History of Philosophy'

"To exist is to be something, as distinguished from the nothing of non-existence, it is to be an entity of a specific nature made of specific attributes. Centuries ago, the man who was—no matter what his errors—the greatest of your philosophers, has stated the formula defining the concept of existence and the rule of all knowledge: A is A. A thing is itself. You have never grasped the meaning of his statement. I am here to complete it: Existence is Identity, Consciousness is Identification.

"Whatever you choose to consider, be it an object, an attribute or an action, the law of identity remains the same. A leaf cannot be a stone at the same time, it cannot be all red and all green at the same time, it cannot freeze and burn at the same time. A is A. Or, if you wish it stated in simpler language: You cannot have your cake and eat it, too.
...

"The law of identity does not permit you to have your cake and eat it, too. The law of causality does not permit you to eat your cake before you have it. . . .

"The law of causality is the law of identity applied to action. All actions are caused by entities. The nature of an action is caused and determined by the nature of the entities that act; a thing cannot act in contradiction to its nature."

~ Ayn Rand from 'Galt's Speech' in her book For the New Intellectual

[Hat tip Louise LaMontagne]

'The Reverse-Centaur’s Guide to AI'

"Start with what a reverse centaur is. In automation theory, a 'centaur' is a person who is assisted by a machine. You're a human head being carried around on a tireless robot body. Driving a car makes you a centaur, and so does using autocomplete.

"And obviously, a reverse centaur is a machine head on a human body, a person who is serving as a squishy meat appendage for an uncaring machine.

"Like an Amazon delivery driver, who sits in a cabin surrounded by AI cameras, that monitor the driver's eyes and take points off if the driver looks in a proscribed direction, and monitors the driver's mouth because singing isn't allowed on the job, and rats the driver out to the boss if they don't make quota.

"The driver is in that van because the van can't drive itself and can't get a parcel from the curb to your porch. The driver is a peripheral for a van, and the van drives the driver, at superhuman speed, demanding superhuman endurance. But the driver is human, so the van doesn't just use the driver. The van uses the driver up.

"Obviously, it's nice to be a centaur, and it's horrible to be a reverse centaur. There are lots of AI tools that are potentially very centaur-like, but my thesis is that these tools are created and funded for the express purpose of creating reverse-centaurs, which is something none of us want to be. ...

"Tech bosses want us to believe that there is only one way a technology can be used. ... The promise of AI – the promise AI companies make to investors – is that there will be AIs that can do your job ... Now, if AI could do your job, this would still be a problem. We'd have to figure out what to do with all these technologically unemployed people.

"But AI can't do your job. It can help you do your job, but that doesn't mean it's going to save anyone money."

~ Cory Doctorow from his speech 'The Reverse-Centaur’s Guide to Criticising AI'

RELATED:

"You don't work less. You just work the same amount or even more."

~ Frank Landymore, 'Researchers Studied What Happens When Workplaces Seriously Embrace AI, and the Results May Make You Nervous'

It's Liberation Year [updated]

Remember so-called Liberation Day, when the Toddler in Chief announced to the world tariffs that split asunder world trade, and wrecked the very domestic economy he reckoned he was going to "save."

Well ...

... and ...

UPDATE:

"There is nothing like a Jobs Wednesday report to remind you that the Donald is utterly clueless when it comes to economic reality. He got a report card for January that shows during his first 12 months, the US economy did not generate a single new job in the goods producing sector!

"That’s right. The jobs figure (SA) for the combined manufacturing, construction, mining and energy sectors (blue line, below) for January 2026 was 21,501,000, which was actually 58,000 below where it stood in January 2025 (21,559,000). And in the case of manufacturing alone (dotted red line), the job count was down by 83,000 in January compared to a year ago.

"It is thus hard to see how those 'big beautiful tariffs' have generated the boom constantly ballyhooed by the White House. For crying out loud: The jobs count in the entire US industrial economy has been shrinking for the entire past year! 

"Not surprisingly, the dismal graph above didn’t dissuade the Donald one bit from crowing about 'GREAT JOBS NUMBERS,' even though the 130,000 monthly increase in January occurred in all the wrong places and then only by virtue of the BLS’ seasonal adjustment black magic.

"We treat with those factors at more length below, but here’s the spoiler alert: During the Donald’s first year the overall US economy purportedly generated 334,000 new jobs (according to the BLS), but fully 789,000 or 236% of those additional jobs were in the education, health care and social services sectors—the funding for which comes almost entirely from government budgets or tax exempt employer health care plans 

"The rest of the economy actually recorded a 455,000 job shrinkage!"

~ David Stockman, from his post 'Schooling The Donald On The BLS Jobs Scam'

"Like so many of the Trump administration’s actions, this is simultaneously weird, dangerous, and profoundly stupid. And we are all going to pay the price for it."

"Last night brought news that the US Food & Drug Agency (FDA) has refused to review Moderna’s application for their new mRNA influenza vaccine ...  Right off, let’s just make clear that an outright refusal-to-review rejection like this is quite unusual ... especially unusual for a vaccine. If there is a prior example like this with the FDA, I am unaware of it. ...

"[T]his application is being denied personally by Vinay Prasad [an anti-vaxxer appointed by RFK Jr to be the agency's top vaccine regulator] and against the recommendation of the FDA’s remaining experts, because he and the rest of the Trump administration are hostile to vaccines in general and to mRNA technology in particular. I don’t see how anyone can look at the statements and actions of the political appointees (from RFK Jr. on down) and come away with any other impression. We are deliberately walking away from the most advanced form of one of the most effective public health measures available to the human race, and instead we are investigated older technologies that happen to involve the administration’s friends. Meanwhile, mRNA therapies are under investigation - in more advanced parts of the world - for far more than vaccines, including various types of cancer. But we, on the other hand, seem to be plowing money into ivermectin (of all things) for that purpose.

"Like so many of the Trump administration’s actions, this is simultaneously weird, dangerous, and profoundly stupid. And we are all going to pay the price for it."

~ Derek Lowe from his post 'An mRNA Refusal to File' [hat tip Duncan B.]

"Those saying we need more welfare in order to produce more children are pushing a remedy fraught with risk, cost and irresponsibility."

"Their study was based on a population of children aged 0-14 years 'informed by a cohort analysis of individuals ... who can be observed through to age 21 .'... One of four risk factors for poor outcomes later in life [is b]eing 'mostly supported by welfare benefits since birth'...

"[In other words,] children raised on welfare [tend to] become adults who are less educated, have poorer mental health, are more likely to become single parents, to rely on welfare and fall foul of the law.

"If being born onto welfare and staying there long-term is a risky business for children, why would any government want to encourage this? In other walks of life we are bombarded with health and safety regulation. And in an environment where 'sustainability' is a constant clamour, how does growing costly dependency stack up?

"Those who advocate limitless number and duration of child benefit payments — the situation that currently exists in New Zealand and the UK is returning to — are ignoring the evidence.

"Those saying we need more welfare in order to produce more children are pushing a remedy fraught with risk, cost and irresponsibility."

~ Lindsay Mitchell from her post 'Boosting birth rates with benefit payments is a very bad idea'

Testing

"After 8 billion doses (yes 8 BILLION, not a typo) Covid vaccines are at this point one of the most tested medical interventions in history and one of the safest ever."

~ Dr Neil Stone

The 'Sovereign Citizen' scam

"Sovereign citizen belief is linguistic magic.

"They believe: 

Legal power comes from words
If you refuse the words, the power disappears
Jurisdiction is a speech act you can decline
Law is a contract you never signed

"It’s almost medieval in structure: the right incantation breaks the spell.

"That’s why they obsess over:

Capital letters
Punctuation
Specific phrases
'I do not consent'
'Under duress'

"They treat law as performative language gone wrong. ...

"They are not anarchists.
"They are not libertarians.
"They are not anti-democracy.

"They are people who believe the legal system is a linguistic scam."

~ Tim Harding from his post 'What sovereign citizens believe'

Americans? Libertarians did try to warn you

"[I]n light of how the past year has unfolded, consider cutting your friendly neighbourhood libertarian some slack. After all, we did try to warn you.

"On immigration, speech and trade, Americans are living in a libertarian’s nightmare. ... a terrifying pattern and an undeniable vindication of the long-held libertarian view that the steady growth in the size of the federal government and executive power would lead to precisely this kind of runaway authoritarianism.

"Libertarians have argued that the only way to prevent such abuses is to reduce the power of the federal government itself — abolishing unaccountable federal agencies, scaling back the administrative state, cutting spending — and to restore the balance of powers by reining in the executive. This path has generally been treated as hopelessly naïve at best, and morally suspect at worst. ... Yet it has never been more obvious that the grab-and-grow approach to power is a destructive and self-defeating way to conduct politics.

"To see why, consider how we got here.

"The Department of Homeland Security arose with very little opposition in the wake of Sept. 11 ... As the years went on, Homeland Security — and especially Immigration and Customs Enforcement, within it — got comfortable operating under a series of exceptions to the Constitution ... So it can be no surprise that ICE officers are roaming the streets of American cities today with an unclear mandate, overpowered military-style gear and a dire misunderstanding of the constitutional limits on their behaviour.  ...

"Trump 2.0 has made the libertarian case more obvious ... But it would be a mistake to treat President Trump as the origin of the ultra-powerful presidency. He is merely picking up the weapons that previous administrations left lying around and waltzing through the loopholes they opened.

"Mr. Trump has a record of threatening media and platforms under various statutory and emergency authorities. He recently mused that when '97 percent' of media coverage is negative, it ceases to be 'free speech.'  ...

"But the project of growing executive power has been bipartisan. On speech, officials in the Biden administration leaned on social-media platforms to take down what they deemed Covid and election misinformation without explicit action from the F.C.C. The Supreme Court disposed of a case, Murthy v. Missouri, challenging this “jawboning” ...

"And Mr. Trump’s tariffs — levelled and removed at will and without the participation of Congress, where the Constitution places the primary power — have disrupted and destabilised the global economy and undermined America’s role in it. ...

"Mr. Trump’s tariffs depend on a legally dubious claim that trade deficits and ordinary commerce constitute a national emergency, allowing him to bypass Congress under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. (Jimmy Carter once invoked it to freeze Iranian assets.) Mr. Trump’s tariffs are not an aberration so much as the latest example of how emergency powers, once normalized, become a standing invitation to rule by fiat.

"One thing immigration, speech and trade have in common is that in recent American history, the power to control each of them has settled into the hands of the executive. ... The Supreme Court is reviewing the limits of the president’s control over tariffs and executive agencies. ... The libertarian prescription, now and always, is to scale back the size and scope of the federal government. Devolve power to states and individuals. Cut spending. And rebalance power away from the executive branch. ...

"The good news is that Americans are increasingly waking up to the dark reality of [an] overbearing federal government. ... Similarly, Americans of all stripes have turned dramatically against Mr. Trump’s ICE enforcement actions. There could be — a libertarian can still dream — a grass-roots movement to shrink government that doesn’t end up co-opted by one of the major parties, as the Tea Party was. ...

"But this glimmer of hope is faint. ...

"Instead of a winner takes all approach to power, it’s time to consider working toward a system where there is much less power for the winner to take. No one wished events would prove libertarians wrong more than libertarians themselves. There’s nothing more annoying than an 'I told you so.' But if more Americans are now ready to limit power before it is abused again, they are welcome to join us."

~ Katherine Mangu-Ward from her New York Times free-access op-ed 'Libertarians: We Told You So'

Collectivism v Democracy

“It is now often said that democracy will not tolerate 'capitalism.' If 'capitalism' means here a competitive system based on free disposal over private property, it is far more important to realise that only within this system is democracy possible. When it becomes dominated by a collectivist creed, democracy will inevitably destroy itself.”

~ Friedrich Hayek from The Road to Serfdom, Ch. 5

"It’s NZ’s own Emancipation Proclamation!"

Good to see more folk acknowledging that Waitangi Day should also be recognised as NZ's Emancipation Day. 

Posted on the 6th, by David Farrar, was this:

Today we celebrate the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi – a day which should be called Emancipation Day. ....

We should celebrate 6 February 1840 as the day slavery was made illegal in New Zealand and tens of thousands of Maori slaves gained the rights of British citizens.

Yes, we should. After all, as someone has been saying for a while now:

It’s NZ’s own Emancipation Proclamation! 

Catastrophic sewage failure starts with pisspoor decision-making

"[T]he cause of the calamity are ... sitting, neatly itemised, in Wellington City Council’s own records. ...

"On 27 May 2021, Wellington City Council’s Long-Term Plan Committee faced a clear fork in the road."Officers presented councillors with water investment options, including one — Water Option 3 — that contained a $391 million wastewater renewals programme... to reduce sewage pollution, starting with the central city and south-coast catchments now making headlines.

"At the same meeting, officers recommended Cycleways Option 3, with capital expenditure of $120 million over ten years. ... An amendment was moved by then-councillor [and now Green MP] Tamatha Paul ... to adopt Cycleways Option 4, expanding the programme to $226 million — nearly doubling it.

"That amendment passed.

"Accelerated wastewater renewal did not.

"The vote is on video. The numbers are in the Long-Term Plan. The consequences are now floating in Cook Strait."

~ Peter Bassett from his post 'Wellington’s Sewage Crisis Wasn’t an Accident. It Was a Vote — and Everyone’s Pretending Not to Remember'

Just how reliable are AIs? A historian's examination.

A historian and cultural commentator has been examining the reliability of AIs for historical research, with thoughts on the future of AI & us. She summarises what she's discovered below, including answers to such questions as:

• Which AIs got the highest scores overall?
• Which AIs got the highest scores by topic: scientific/technical, historical context, creativity, historical and legal?
• Unavoidable methodological issues with As
• Lessons on use of AIs for historical research
• Will AIs surpass and replace humans?

Dianne Durante has written several books, and maintains a historical blog. What she has used AIs for in the past, "and will still use," are for very specific questions:

how to trouble-shoot the document feeder on an HP 8000-series printer/scanner, where to find Gaussian blur on the Adobe InDesign menu, what stretches to use for a tight IT band, how much time to allow for a visit to the Kingsley Plantation, or what the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party is. An AI [she says] gives me answers much, much faster than I could get them by wading through Google search results. ... 

As a historian [however], I tend to need answers to much more obscure and complex questions. When I started using Grok for such questions last summer, it gave me egregiously incorrect answers. (See Part 1 of this series.)

So I set out to discover:

Are AIs reliable for providing historical facts? Can I trust them to accurately deliver all the relevant details on matters such as Chladni figures and the Proclamation of 1763? Should I assume I always need to do further research? Should I avoid AIs altogether, and spend my research time looking for other sources?

Are AIs useful for going beyond facts to analysis? For example, are they good at providing interpretation, overviews, and/or inductive conclusions, such as a list of the most significant artworks of the 18th century, or of the major events of the 1790s?

Are some AIs better than others, in general or on specific topics?

Head to her many earlier posts (starting back in xxx 2025) to see her detailed methodology and results.

So, how did they all do?  In summary, based on the average of the scores from all 7 of her questions:

Winner: Grok, with 70%. That’s better than the others, but if you were using Grok to write your answers on an exam consisting of my 7 questions, you’d barely scrape through with a C. [That caveat is important.]

Loser: Perplexity, with 38%.

Mid-range: ChatGPT (50%), Claude (48%), and Deepseek (56%).

There was no way to ask Britannica or Wikipedia several of the questions, so I didn’t give them an overall score.

For results by category, best for Scientific and Technical: Grok and Deepseek (100% and 95% respectively; average = 81%).

                                    ... best for Historical Context: Claude and Deepseek (60%, 58%; average 51%)

                                    ... best for Creativity: Perplexity (85%; average 76%)

                                    ... best for Historical and Legal: Grok (70%; average 52%)

Head to her post to see what specific questions she asked, and why. She has a few thoughts ("If you have limited time for research, don’t spend every minute of it with AIs"), and a reminder:

LLMs don’t think. All the AIs I looked at except Britannica’s Chatbot are large-language models, a.k.a. LLMs (see Part 3). An LLM is fed an enormous amount of data so it can generate human-like language by predicting what words will follow a particular word or phrase. An AI doesn’t receive your question, gather data, observe how it relates what it already knows, analyze it according to scientific or philosophical principles, and then consider the most effective way to present the information to you. The AI just predicts what might come next. That’s why it can slide seamlessly from truth to hallucination. An AI will repeat any errors in the data fed into it, be it from major media, random posts on the internet, or Wikipedia. An AI is the ultimate in second-handedness.

So do not assume accuracy in your answers, especially if it's a topic you don't know much about.

I like her conclusion:

Re AIs becoming indistinguishable from humans, and then making humans obsolete: if philosophers, biologists, psychologists, et al., can’t explain the mechanisms of free will, the procedure for induction, etc., then we cannot program a computer to do those things. Until and unless we can, AIs are not human-like in the ways that matter most, and cannot replace humans.

 Head to her post to read it all.

At dawn

Hobson's grave, at the end of K Rd, beside Grafton Bridge.
Worth a dawn visit on Feb 6?

At dawn tomorrow an assorted rabble of politicians, protesters and hosts will make an appearance up at Waitangi.

I might do something different.

At dawn (to be fair, it will almost certainly be more like morning-tea time) I might head along the road to the grave of William Hobson, New Zealand's ailing first governor who died after barely two years in office. I might head along there to his forgotten resting place and, on the anniversary of perhaps his only political triumph,  pay him due respect.

It's the least I can do.

Now, while Hobson was a dashing sea captain, and one of the best at clearing slavers and pirates out of the Caribbean — his daring exploits were the basis of a Hornblower-like novel by Michael Scott (1789–1835), several of Frederick Marryat's naval stories— eat your heart out Johnny Depp—his appointment as consul here is yet another data point in the theory that everyone will eventually be promoted one job above their level of competence.

He was awful. He knew little of the treaty he co-authored. He battled metaphorically with settlers and govt finances. He suppressed newspapers who criticised him. His small staff, the dregs of the NSW administration cunningly offloaded onto the political naif by the NSW governor, exploited his naivety to line their own pockets. And he left his own family in dire financial straits at his death.

But he did leave behind the rudiments of and respect for the Rule of Law. And he was an instrument, and a powerful one, in removing pirates from the world’s trade routes and eradicating slavery. 

Michael Joseph Savage has as his sainted memorial a whole beautifully-presented mausoleum overlooking the Waitemata Harbour. The late governor Hobson deserves more than to be forgotten about under a disrespected bridge beside a busy motorway.