Saturday, 21 March 2026

'Nature-al’ Entrepreneurship: Being Green Without the State | Timothy Terrell


This is a transcript, edited for clarity, of a talk by professor Timothy Terrell at the Mises Insistute conference in Oklahoma just last week.

He argues if you want to go green, you should do so without the state’s coercion, explaining how entrepreneurs and property rights can protect forests, wildlife, and open spaces better than bureaucracies, using real-world examples of “enviropreneurs”....

'Nature-al’ Entrepreneurship: Being Green Without the State

by Timothy Terrell

I subtitled my talk being green without the state, but I'm not trying to put some sort of free-market twist on a lecture about how you need to use an electric lawn mower or recycle or something like that. I'm in fact going to try to avoid pushing my preferences about uses of the environment altogether. That's not really my point here. 

People have different ideas about what is good and about what is useful. And I like the many useful things that we can make with the resources we extract from the environment. 

Many people like me also enjoy wilderness land and views of wildlife. I like forests and rivers. I like knowing that some species of antalope or rhinoceros are still with us, even if I'm not actually going out and looking at it myself. 

What I want to do is show that entrepreneurship is compatible with those goals. 

Entrepreneurship and the environment

An entrepreneur is a person who anticipates a future consumer demand and tries to adjust the factors of production to accomplish that, for the consumer, in search of a profit. For many people, this seems just diametrically opposed to the idea of solving problems related to the use of the environment. I'm going to suggest it's not only not incompatible, that it's essential that we think of things this way. 

We tend to think of entrepreneurship as being separate from the natural world, or at least just making goods that require extracting some substances from the world and then manipulating them into some product. What I'd like to do here is make the case that entrepreneurs can do this with nature as well, creating goods in a sense that have nature in its natural state, or at least something close to it. 

Environmental resources have value that is determined by the goals of the customers. The entrepreneur must satisfy those customers to earn a profit. So we say that environmental value is imputed -- that is to say that the value of the resource in the environment is derived from the value of the product that's made from that resource. 

An environmentalist of the anti-capitalistic type however, which is a very common type, might protest. Um, wouldn't we say that elements of the environment have some sort of value apart from whether they can be turned into a toaster or turned into a fur coat? And uh, you know, they might say, well, do we have to make everything uh into some kind of raw material for a factory? And I would say, well, certainly not. We have to think more broadly about what customers really want. 

Entrepreneurs respond not only to people who want goods that are manufactured out of the environment. They respond to people who value the natural world as more than just a source of calories, minerals, or fibre. 

Many people want goods and services that are the products of factories. We all do that to some extent, but we also value goods and services that are best provided by an environment in its natural state. So, people want the same kinds of things I want when I head out to the wilderness, as I like to do and don't get to do as much as I'd like. 

Maybe some people just want the knowledge that there is a place where land and wildlife exist without human contact. Even if that means we're not necessarily going to go and visit that place. Many of us just like knowing that there is such a place and providing those things is not outside the realm of entrepreneurship. 

Value? Whose value?

But I think we need to clear up something first. Some environmentalists want to separate the idea of value from a valuer. And I think that's a that's a serious problem. 

They're arguing for a kind of an inherent value in nature, but they run up against this insurmountable difficulty: How do we decide what this inherent value is to compare it to the value of other things? And we can't really. 

An individual who's demanding that other people recognise a certain value is often simply a demand that other people accept the authority of that person to say what the value is.

So, an individual can say authoritatively for him that a tree is worth more than a chair from that tree. Or even say that all the manufactured goods in the world are worth more or to less to him than that single tree. You can do that. You can make that statement if you like. But that person could not authoritatively say for everyone for all time that a tree is inherently worth more or less than a chair. 

You may value for yourself a particular tree rather than having a chair from that tree. Nobody would be able to say otherwise. But getting into questions of whether we should value a chair more than a tree or value a tree more than a chair is to inject morality into the discussion. Now I'm certainly not opposed to having that kind of conversation, but I think we should be aware of what's happening there that that is that is a religious conversation. And I think environmentalist religious values should be seen for what they are and we should deal with them on that level. 

When individuals choose one alternative from among many alternatives, they are stating their values – revealing their preferences, if you like -- and they're indicating that in a way that is convincing. 

If I choose to eat a hamburger instead of a salad, I'm showing my own preferences in a in a pretty strong way. it's reliable. And when people choose a chair over a tree or vice versa, that is also reliable evidence. 

And an entrepreneur may forecast that people may want chairs in the future instead of trees. And they may then try to acquire the inputs into production to create that production process to create chairs out of trees. That entrepreneur has to obtain um command of those resources. They have to either buy or rent the resources. They have to hire the labour to produce those those things. And we then see that movement from chair from trees to chairs instead of the trees continuing in whatever their alternative use was. 

Normally the chair manufacturer, the entrepreneur, is going to do this by persuading people, maybe by paying them, but certainly donations are not out of the question in order to get that kind of product to the final consumer. 

If that entrepreneur is correct in his forecast, then he makes a profit. If he is incorrect in his forecast, there will be a loss. And Mises wrote that profit and loss “are generated by success or failure in adjusting the course of production activities to the most urgent demand of the consumers.” 

Now those protesters who would prefer that trees remain as trees instead of being turned into chairs do have a clear pathway to get what they want without coercion. They may engage in nature entrepreneurship or as some at the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC) have called it: enviropreneurship. These enviropreneurs can produce another kind of good. They can produce a good called trees in their natural state or something of that sort. 

In order to do that, these individuals would have to gain ownership or control over these trees by paying for them, leasing them entrusting them,or simply by getting people to donate the forest to them just as the chairmaking entrepreneur would have to do. So whether as a for-profit or legally a not-for-profit entity, that nature enterprise would then be imputing value to those trees. In that way it is pushing back against the use of trees for chairs. 

the tree lovers and the chair lovers are then engaging in a kind of a peaceful market process that works out how many trees are allocated to each group. 

So, when a market is allowed to work freely, it is um a process of each person who wants to extract a natural resource, or to leave that resource in its place, comparing his own valuation of that resource to that of others. 

Examples: How do you fight ‘Big Chair’?

So let's suppose we have a thousand-acre plot of forested land that's up for sale. The person who wants to use that land for a forest preserve would have to compare how much do I value this compared to what its alternative use is. And they would have to be able and willing to offer as much for that land as the next highest bidder. 

Whether that highest bidder or next highest bidder is someone who wants to cut the trees down and make chairs out of them -- or maybe to discourage the growth of further trees in order to have some kind of antelope preserve. 

So, how can a bunch of tree huggers possibly compete with a profit- seeking enterprise? How do they fight ‘Big Chair’? 

For some people it may seem that government coercion is the only answer to this. But I think private nature entrepreneurs may realize economic value in several ways and make their enterprise work out financially. 

They could sell visits to the nature preserve. We could maybe call this ecotourism. 

They could also harvest resources from the preserve in a way that is not is not incompatible with using it as a as a nature preserve. I'm reminded of a episode in which the Audobon Society sold natural gas rights to a bird preserve that they had acquired in Louisiana. They were of course very careful about how that was to be done, but they did lease out those gas reserves while maintaining the land for the benefit of birds as well. So there are ways to do that. 

Also you could sell merch -- branded merchandise. My wife has a sweatshirt that says American Prairie Reserve on it and it's advertising for donations essentially for that organisation. 

We can come up with a lot of and don't have to you know make up examples. We can think of actual examples of cases where this kind of thing has been done. 

There's a group called the Migratory Bird Conservation Partnership which uses donations to create or enhance wildlife habitat. One of the things they do is a programme called the Bird Returns Programme where they pay California farmers to flood rice fields after the harvest to provide migratory birds with attractive landing spots along the Pacific flyway. And the farmers participate in a sort-of reverse auction where they say, "Okay, this is how much money it would take me to convince me to keep my land flooded um after the harvest." And the organisation goes through these bids and says, "Okay, which ones? how much land can we get for the cheapest?” and they then pay these farmers to keep their lands flooded um and provide habitat for these birds. 

This whole thing relies on data from an volunteers who contribute to something called an e-Bird app about sightings of various birds. 

I found out, by the way on my trip from the airport [to this conference] that Oklahomans really like birds. They have them on a lot of the license plates. Scissor tail I think. Uh so in in Montana [where I live], another group that I already mentioned, the American Prairie Reserve has assembled a patchwork of private land to preserve prairie and its natural state. They use donated funds for this. 

They want to eventually connect 3.2 million acres of prairie. They make campsites available with low-impact facilities. My wife and I reserved one of these last year on a trip through Montana. 

One of the things they do is a bison conservation programme. They manage bison. Their objective is to have a herd of some 5,000 bison around Yellowstone National Park. 

And in central Idaho, wolf lovers created a trust fund to compensate ranchers for livestock that were lost to wolves. And the idea there was to reduce the objections, which are understandable, that ranchers might have to reintroducing wolves into the wild.

And a few years later, the same individuals did the same kind of thing for grizzly bears. 

In Vermont, the Audabon Society has created a ‘Produced in Bird-Friendly Habitats’ label for maple-syrup producers to use in exchange for enhancing bird habitat in their maple tree forests. 

The same organisation, the Audabon Society, succeeded in New Mexico in gaining property rights over instream water which was beneficial for birds -- and a group called Trout Unlimited did the same thing for trout preservation purposes. 

Last year I gave a talk at a Mises event in Florida, where I mentioned the NA Nature Conservancy's Sycan Marsh Preserve in Oregon which was managed so well that when a raging fire on neighbouring government land approached their preserve, it was noticeably diminished in intensity down to a kind of a manageable ground fire because they had actually managed their land well as opposed to the government which had had not. 

Hunt them, skin them, save them

Another example. There are private ranches in Texas who imported and bred Aurochs], Addax Antelope and Dama Gazelles. And they started this even before the Endangered Species Act was created. They obtained revenue by allowing hunters to come on the land and hunt these species. 

Of course, they had an incentive to not let these species be over hunted. That was a source of revenue for them. And as of 2024, there were about 12,000 scimitar-horned Aurochs and 5,000 Addax on these ranches, and somewhere between about 1,000 and,500 Dama Gazelle. The Aurochs actually went extinct in their native habitat in Africa and so these Texas Aurochs provided the seed stock for reintroducing the Aurochs in their natural habitat. This is because of entrepreneurs doing this on their own initiative. 

Since only about 250 to 300 Dama Gazelle are left in their native habitat in in North Africa, these private ranches might actually help to bring that species back into its into its natural habitat as well. 

And there's a lot of other examples of this kind of environmental entrepreneurship. There are countless conservation and habitat preservation efforts by private land owners that don't get noticed because nobody knows about them. They're maybe just an individual or a family, not a national organisation. But there's a lot of this kind of thing going on, even if it’s some farmer that's maintaining a little bit of acreage for a bird habitat. 

Unintentional Enviropreneurship

There's also a kind of unintentional green entrepreneurship that comes from entrepreneurs trying to reduce their use of scarce resources in order to cut costs. You know, you go way back and find, you know, the discovery of how to make kerosene out of petroleum, which provided a useful and inexpensive alternative to whale oil -- with corresponding eventual benefits for whale populations.

Or innovations in fish farming, which meant that you can produce fish at low cost and reduce pressure on fish populations in the open ocean where private property rights have been imperfectly established -- or even forbidden by governments. 

Producing crop breeds with more output per acre means that land can be reconverted to forest land. We've actually seen this happen in Europe where forests have been expanding, and I think also in the United States. Certainly since the 1930s we've got more forests than we did at that time. 

Green tech & government

So what function does this leave for government? 

Can government be a nature entrepreneur? 

Some people will say that government must make some kind of investment in, say, green technology or some other kind of innovation, promotion, or maybe take ownership of land. 

I was just talking at my table with some people about um the grabs for land by the Federal Government under Teddy Roosevelt’s presidency and some others, and I've talked here before about some of the problems of government land management

Here I want to think more about the green technology side of things. Part of the work of the entrepreneur is trying to decide how to use technology and capital, and we see government inserting itself into these kinds of decisions. 

When I worked for the Soil Conservation Service, which iss now renamed, but as part of the Department of Agriculture we provided technical assistance to farmers. And we would often kind of joke to ourselves about Ronald Reagan's comment about the nine most terrifying words in the English language” “I'm from the government and I'm here to help.” 

And that was an appropriate concern. That agency had actually been instrumental in promoting kudzu vine -- sometimes called “the vine that ate the south” -- a weed that was introduced by the Soil Conservatgion Service for soil erosion control but has proved very difficult to control, and now covers arond 7 million acres in the southeastern United States.

So do we need the government to fund the development of or adoption of a new agricultural technique or energy-efficient technology? 

Some people believe it would be very helpful for government to promote this kind of thing, a new energy source and new energy production technology. Maybe it's not competitive now, they say, but if you just get government to provide the seed money then eventually it would be. This is the kind of argument you will hear.

I would say it's impossible for these kinds of decisions to be carried out successfully by a government bureaucracy. Mises showed why over a hundred years ago in a famous 1920 essay on the socialist calculation problem and then more fully in his book Socialism. Without an unhampered market process, he explained, there is no way for a government to determine whether a conventional method or some new technology is best suited to the satisfaction of the customer. And there's several reasons for this. 

First, there's a limited willingness of people to exchange goods now for goods later. This is the concept of time preference. 

Government can simply coerce funds from people. It can force people to accept a greater loss in the present in order to get a speculative gain of some kind in the future. A potential return that is really so small that people wouldn't really want to accept this if given the choice. 

And some people might say, well, you know, people are simply too dull-minded to appreciate these later gains and they have to be forced into accepting this kind of investment for their own good. You know, we're going to take your tax dollars and we're going to invest in these solar panels and you'll be glad that we did this later. And if you're not glad, it's just proof that you're not as smart as we are. Or maybe you're just a bad person. We know what's good for you because we're the experts. So trust us. 

But why should we expect government using other people's money to have a clearer picture of present costs and future benefits? There's really no way for them to do this. 

For the sake of time I’ll not comment on the competition for taxpayer dollars which I think some of the other talks have mentioned -- the lobbying that goes on where elected officials are constantly accepting bids for changing regulation. 

I'll mention one example of government steering innovation in a way that is comically absurd. In the 1950s, and this is from an article by Benjamin Powell, a group in Japan called the Ministry for International Trade and Industry or MITI tried to steer Japan's industrial investment. They tried to prevent a small firm from acquiring manufacturing rights to produce semiconductors. The firm persisted and was eventually allowed to acquire the technology. That firm went on to become a highly successful consumer electronics company, Sony. 

The same Ministry also attempted to prevent firms in the Japanese auto industry from entering the export market, and tried to force 10 firms in the industry to merge into two, Nissan and Toyota. These attempts failed and the automobile manufacturing went on to become one of Japan's most successful industries. 

Some of you may remember a more recent example involving a solar panel manufacturing firm named Solyndra which was the largest recipient at one time of Department of Energy funds. They got a $535 million loan guarantee and only about a year and a half after that guarantee they were in very serious trouble: laying off workers, shutting down one of their two facilities. And this is I thought interesting that they delayed their announcement of their layoffs and their plant shutdown until the day after the midterm elections in 2010. Under obvious pressure from the Department of Energy, taxpayers ended up losing about $528 million when the firm went bankrupt in 2011. 

Private investments also experience failure, but we should expect the severity of failures in an unhampered market to be reduced, since private investors have the advantage of better information.  

I'll just close by saying that that I think it's better far better for all of us to preserve the freedom of entrepreneurs to do what they do best. 

They far more faithfully than government will serve the interests of their customers and that includes customers who are concerned with environmental benefits. That includes the customers who are interested in chairs and toaster ovens and houses, as well as the customers who want forests and prairie and gazelles. 

Thanks very much.  

* * * * 

Timothy Terrell is T.B. Stackhouse Professor of Economics at Wofford College in Spartanburg, South Carolina, where he has taught since 2000. He earned his PhD in economics from Auburn University in 1998. Dr. Terrell is a Senior Fellow with the Mises Institute, where he works on the editorial staffs of the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics and the Journal of Libertarian Studies. He is also the Böhm-Bawerk Visting Research Fellow for Spring 2026. Dr. Terrell’s research focuses on regulatory and environmental policy issues. 

Friday, 20 March 2026

Utilitarianism is bunk

"[Utilitarians], in the fashion of [Jeremy] Bentham, pronounce the greatest happiness of the greatest number to be the social end, although they fail to make it intelligible why the happiness of the greater number should be cogent as an end upon those who happen to belong to the lesser number."
~ Felix Adler from his essay “The Relation of Ethics to Social Science,” in H.J. Rogers, ed., Congress of Arts and Science (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1906), vol. 7, p. 673 [cited in Murray Rothbard's article 'Utilitarian Free-Market Economics']

Thursday, 19 March 2026

"The Maori seats encourage people to ghettoise themselves"

"It has become starkly obvious that the Maori seats are being used by activists to [ghettoise Māori: to isolate them, separate them, cut them off, according to a cultural identity]. ...

"Ghettoisation can be done to a person or group, or people or groups can do it to themselves. ...

"Israr Kasana, a Pakistani Muslim immigrant to the Canadian city of Calgary, explains why he and his family rejected the temptation to adopt the comfortable way of establishing themselves within a Pakistani community. He says 'Ghettoisation or marginalisation of any kind is bad for society. It creates exclusion, imbalance, envy, anger, ignorance and, more importantly, distrust.' ...

"The Maori seats encourage people to ghettoise themselves according to cultural identity, whereas what we must surely want is a society in which people of all races are able to coexist together in peace and cooperation as equal citizens under the law." ...

"[Then National leader Bill] English said [in 2003] the National Party 'stands for one standard of citizenship for all.' ... 'That’s why a National-led Government will abolish the Maori seats.” Of course, it did nothing of the sort when National came back into government in 2008 under John Key. Instead, the Key government abetted the infiltration of all parts of New Zealand society by elements who would substitute authoritarian tribal rule for a free and democratic society, a process which was accelerated by the Ardern/Hipkins governments. ...

"Under pressure from ACT and New Zealand First, the coalition government has walked this back a bit but not to the extent needed to offer meaningful restraint of the authoritarian tendencies which unthinking acquiescence by most of us has unwittingly allowed. ...

"Leadership is needed. We need a Prime Minister who will say loudly and clearly what English said in 2003 ... Today, when NZ First has advanced a Bill for a referendum and ACT says get rid of the Maori seats now, the opportunity is ripe for that sort of leadership.

"Getting rid of the seats, especially by or endorsed by referendum to show it is peoples’ will, would not only remove an anti-democratic excrescence, but also be a signal that enough is enough and that henceforth we shall be a 'multiracial society [where] people of all races are able to coexist together in peace and cooperation as equal citizens under the law.'

"Yet the National Party is silent. ..."

~ Gary Judd, composite quote from his posts 'Ghettoising the mind' and 'National could signal its support for democracy'

SOME HISTORY

"[T]he Māori seats were created to bring Māori into the parliamentary system and guarantee representation, rather than exclude them.
 
"By 1867, when the Māori Representation Act 1867(1) passed, Europeans outnumbered Māori roughly four to one. ...

"The Māori seats addressed a real problem: under the New Zealand Constitution Act 1852 [2] voting required individual property or household qualification. Most Māori land was communally held, leaving Māori largely unable to meet the franchise. ...

The Māori electorates solved the voting problem by granting all Māori men over 21 the right to vote, decades before universal male suffrage applied elsewhere in New Zealand [3]. Far from limiting Māori rights, the law expanded them. ...

"The seats also guaranteed meaningful participation. Four electorates—three in the North Island, one for the South—were superimposed over existing electorates. Māori with qualifying property could still vote in European electorates, giving many a dual vote. [4] Officials went to extraordinary lengths to ensure participation: in 1890, a returning officer undertook a six-day trek through dense Urewera bush to establish a polling station at Maungapōhatu. [5] Such efforts are hardly consistent with a strategy to suppress Māori voices. ...

"Seats were originally intended as temporary until Māori qualified under the general property franchise [6] ...

"While Māori were under-represented by modern proportional standards [when the Māori seats were created in 1867, each European electorate represented roughly 3,500 people, while each Māori electorate represented around 12,500 people [7]], the four seats ensured guaranteed parliamentary representation, at a time when European immigration was rapidly outpacing Māori numbers. This was enfranchisement, not suppression.' ...

"However today the original rationale for the Māori electorates has disappeared. In the current Parliament 33 MPs identify as having Māori heritage — about 27% of the House — far exceeding Māori’s roughly 17% share of the population. Even without the seven reserved seats, Māori representation would remain substantial, the historical purpose of the Māori electorates has now been fulfilled and, consistent with the 1986 Royal Commission on the Electoral System and with Article 3 of the Treaty of Waitangi, they should now be abolished in favour of equal representation for all voters."
NOTES
1. New Zealand History, “Setting up the Māori seats,” https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/setting-maori-seats
2. New Zealand Parliament, “History of the Electoral System,” https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/how-parliament-works/history/history-of-the-electoral-system/
3. New Zealand History, “Setting up the Māori seats,” https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/setting-maori-seats
4. McRobie, Alan, Electoral Atlas of New Zealand, GP Books, 1989.
5. New Zealand History, “Polling in isolated Māori communities,” https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/setting-maori-seats
6. Ibid.; New Zealand History, “Setting up the Māori seats,” https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/setting-maori-seats
7. Te Ara, “Māori representation,” https://teara.govt.nz/en/nga-mangai-maori-representation


Wednesday, 18 March 2026

It's the mind that creates value


The 'Amazing Physics' account observes:

This is a 1000-gram [steel] bar. 

In its raw form [as a steel billet], it’s worth around $1.

If it’s turned into horseshoes, its value rises to about $100. 

If it’s made into sewing needles, its value jumps to roughly $500. 

If it’s crafted into watch springs and gears, it can be worth around $100,000. 

And if it’s transformed into precision laser components, like those used in lithography, its value can reach $10-50 million.

What gives escalating value to the simple raw material is the mind. It is the mind that transforms the value of a metal bar into the value of those horseshoes, needles, watch springs, and precision labour components. 

Have you ever looked for the root of production? Take a look at an electric generator and dare tell yourself that it was created by the muscular effort of unthinking brutes. Try to grow a seed of wheat without the knowledge left to you by men who had to discover it for the first time. Try to obtain your food by means of nothing but physical motions—and you'll learn that man's mind is the root of all the goods produced and of all the wealth that has ever existed on earth.

That was Ayn Rand, writing in answer to the question: "What is Capitalism?" 

Rand was almost unique in writing about the role of the mind in man's existence; about its role in invention and production and valuing. "It is the mind," her novel Atlas Shrugged illustrates, "that is the root of all human knowledge and values -- and its absence is the root of all evil."

Read more here, in two parts:

"Too often ‘multiculturalism’ is mistaken for ‘multiracialism'"

"Too often ‘multiculturalism’ is mistaken for ‘multiracialism,’ when the two could not be more different. A multiracial society is one in which people of all races are able to coexist together in peace and cooperation as equal citizens under the law. A multicultural society is one in which people are encouraged to ghettoise themselves according to national or cultural identity."
~ Andrew Doyle from his book The End of Woke: How the Culture War Went Too Far and What to Expect from the Counter-Revolution [hat tip Gary Judd]

Tuesday, 17 March 2026

Paul Erlich is Dead, his Environmentalism is (still) refuted

Environmentalist Paul Erlich alarmed the world back in 1968 predicting a "population explosion" which forecast “the greatest cataclysm in the history of man” -- food shortages escalating hunger and starvation “into famines of unbelievable proportions.”

In the obituary for the 93-year-old doom-monger, who died this week, the New York Times called his predictions "premature." But they weren't even wrong. They didn't happen, and they never will. (See above for how cataclysmically wrong the catastrophiser really was.)

Some of his other failed and frankly nasty predictions:
  • "In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate."
  • "In ten years [this was 1970] all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish."
  • "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people.If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."
  • “Sometime in the next 15 years the end will come, and by ‘the end’ I mean an utter breakdown of the capacity of the planet to support humanity.”
  • “Giving society cheap, abundant energy at this point would be the moral equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun."
  • “By 1985 enough millions will have died to reduce the earth’s population to some acceptable level, like 1.5 billion people.”
  • "We must have population control at home, hopefully through a system of incentives and penalties, but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail."
Yet despite being wrong about everything, the failed forecaster made a million and was showered with awards.

He never recanted.

Doom sells. Sadly. Still.

He was a gambler. A few years back, I wrote about a famous bet, for which this is the winning cheque:

Several decades ago, gloom-monger Paul Erlich and techno-optimist Julian Simon had a bet.

Erlich was certain resources were running out and humanity was doomed. Simon asserted they weren't and wouldn't be. The bet was that, by the end of that decade, a basket of resources chosen by Erlich would cost more to buy — more, said Erlich, because by then those resources would be running out. Less, said Simon in reponse. (Simon, you see, was confident that the ultimate resource, from which all others derive, is the human mind — a machine for turning shit into useful stuff.) 

Simon won. 

Resources weren't running out. 

They still aren't.

The "Simon Abundance Index" (SAI, below),which measures the relative abundance of resources since that bet, now stands at 609.4. Meaning that in 2023, the Earth was 509.4 percent more abundant in 2023 than it was in 1980!

How astonishing is that! World population since 1980 has almost doubled; while resources produced by human beings have multiplied by more than five times!! 

Turns out that as global population increases, that "virtually all resources became more abundant. How on earth (literally) is that possible?"

Unlike Erlich and the sundry other doom-sayers who litter the planet today, Simon recognised that without the knowledge of how to use them, raw materials have no economic value whatsoever. They are just so much stuff. What transforms a raw material into a resource is knowledge — knowledge of how that stuff might satisfy a human need, and how to place it in a causal connection to satisfy that need. (The great Carl Menger explained this process way back in 1870!) And since new knowledge is potentially limitless, so too are resources.

 Infinite, because the ultimate resource is the human mind.

In this sense, as George Reisman puts it, environmentalism is refuted.

The Simon Abundance Index: 1980-2023 (1980=100)


Marian Tupy points out some interesting parallels with other catastrophisers:
1. Malthus published his book on English overpopulation and overconsumption in 1798. Thereafter, the population of England rose, and the prices of wheat fell relative to wages.
2. Marx published 'Das Kapital' in 1867, arguing that workers' wages would be squeezed to zero by capitalist competition (based on a much-debated and probably incorrect "Engels' Pause"). Thereafter, English wages skyrocketed.
3. Ehrlich published his book about coming global famines in 1968. Thereafter, global famines collapsed, and standards of living across much of the world rose.
Forget these failed forecasters. Sign up to Tupy's Human Progress agenda instead.

RELATED:









"You are not safer for knowing less about what people really think"

"I can’t tell you exactly how I would respond to someone who defended Hitler, but I know what I would not do: stalk him on social media, contact his employer to try to get him fired, or ask my government representative to help criminalise such talk.
Does this make me a free speech absolutist? Not quite. ... [More of a] free speech maximalist....

"[T]he maximalist position grants special status to free speech and puts the burden of proof on those who wish to curtail it. While accepting some restrictions in time, place, and manner, free speech maximalism defaults to freedom of content. It aligns with the litmus test developed by U.S. Supreme Court Justices Hugo Black and William O. Douglas, which holds that government should limit its regulation of speech to speech that dovetails with lawless action:
'Let’s go kill a few Germans?' Not kosher.
'The only good German is a dead one?' Fair game. ...
"But but … critics sputter … what about hate speech? Free speech maximalism posits that you can’t regulate an inherently subjective concept. ...

"To those concerned about the dangers of loosening our tongues, I offer Greg Lukianoff’s bracing maxim: 'You are not safer for knowing less about what people really think'.”

More than a covid's-worth of fiscal incontinence

"[W]hen the pandemic hit Ardern and Robertson had a decision to make. Respond in a fiscally prudent manner or borrow seventy billion, at least thirty of this was spent on non-pandemic frippery, and wrap themselves in a cloak of virtue while leaving an economic calamity to a future set of politicians. ...

"Ardern and Robertson used the pandemic to advance their own agenda ... [John] Key saw a crisis and, lacking an economic agenda or political philosophy, ran to the international money men to maintain the status quo rather than attempt meaningful reform.

"Given the content of the Covid Report the current government is right to highlight Robertson’s fiscal incontinence; pointing to the 70.4 billion total spend as a contrast with their own rectitude.

"Except. Well. ... [Nicola] Willis, who has managed to add over twenty billion new debt in her first two years in office, is projected to increase sovereign debt by more than Robertson achieved over the next five years.

"And this is without a pandemic, major earthquake or outbreak of foot and mouth. ...

"Imagine a company director who has seen revenue fall but maintains payroll by borrowing. Eventually the line of credit ends, staff lose their employment and the director is forced to sell the family home.

"That is our economic policy in one paragraph."

Monday, 16 March 2026

Iran: The risk is TACO

"It's 2029 [the Iranian regime] was bloodied and enraged, but not defeated, in a 3-week aerial campaign in 2026. They've had 3 years to rebuild. Not their civilian infrastructure -- their arsenal of drones and hypersononic missiles. Plus their capacity to manufacture them.

"Now the hardened underground facilities where they make, store, and launch them are now safely below the penetration depth of US bunker-busting bombs.

"In technology development, three years is an eternity.

"The new drones are faster, have a smaller radar signature, and are much smarter. Their hypersononic missiles have much longer range. They can hit anywhere in Europe. From a ship, they can hit anywhere in the US.

"Three years was also enough for [the regime] to enrich uranium to weapons grade. And to perfect their warhead design. And to manufacture dozens of them

"One fine morning -- Sep 11, by purest coincidence -- the US Fifth Fleet is hit by a swarm of drones. In the chaos, distracting the US military, three salvos of hypersonic missiles are launched. Tel Aviv goes up in radioactive smoke six minutes later. 15 to 20 minutes later, countries friendly to the US -- Germany and the UK -- get hit.

"And ships disguised as tankers launch at the US from both oceans.

"The survivors wonder what happened. They had confused two different things:
  1. the 2026 war had an unconstitutional start;
  2. Iran was not a serious threat.
"And nuclear. ...

"This is what the next Iran war would look like if the US abandons this one (i.e. loses) now. ...
"There is an elephant in the room. Let's acknowledge it. If we lose now, [the Iranian regime] will be emboldened. It may take them a year to rebuild their arsenal and make longer range missiles, and nuclear warheads. But they will do it, and unleash terror on a global scale. ...
"I did not say that I think the US will do this. I say if the US does this, then the result is predictable. ... 
Not immediately. [The regime's] capability has been degraded. They will rebuild capability, and add much more (including nukes). And start the next war, at the moment they choose.

"I have made no secret of the fact that I think Trump is a terrible president, a dishonest narcissist who operates on whim and whose whims change ten times a minute. 
"The major risk of a war like this with a terrible Commander in Chief like this is that his whim will change. ...
"The risk is TACO [i.e., Trump always chickens out]: the risk of Trump leading this attack is that he will chicken out, and give up. 
"[Now it's begun] we shouldn't work to push him to do that. ...

"This is an argument for not going to war in the first place. But once the war is going, it is not an argument for abandoning it!

"'When you're going through hell--keep going!' (Winston Churchill)."
~ Donal Coyote

"Be feared or be loved." True?

"The rebbe rightly rejects the false alternatives from 
Machiavelli: 'be feared or be loved.' But he does not mention 
a key attribute of the good man: INDEPENDENCE."

"One of Machiavelli’s most famous ideas is that it is 'better to be feared than loved.' He observed that, in power struggles, being feared can prevent betrayal or confrontation and can command a certain kind of respect.
    "My goal in life is not to pursue power at any cost. I also reject the false choice between being feared or being loved by others. 
    "What I seek instead is happiness—achieved through my own independent effort. I do not wish to live as either a master or a slave to anyone. 
    "Whether others fear me or love me cannot be the foundation of my happiness, because that would make my well-being dependent on them. True happiness, for me, comes from independence: from using my own thinking and actions to create the things I want to see existing."

Saturday, 14 March 2026

"Economic theory has identified four sources of economic progress"

In January Javier Milei explained to a room of Davos delegates to the WEF forum how the world works, and how economic progress and prosperity happens. This is an excerpt. [Milei's speech was originally in Spanish, and the English version at the WEF website has been transcribed by AI. I have edited slightly it for smoothness and clarity. Emphases mine]

As early as 380 BC, Xenophon pointed out that economics is a form of knowledge that enables men to increase their wealth while arguing that private property is the most beneficial vehicle for the life of individuals.

Xenophon ... [first] highlight[ed] the benefit of private property by stating that the owner's eye fattens his cattle. [Or as the English saying has it: "It's the master's eye that makes the mill go"]... Xenophon then delves into the dynamic realm, noting that efficiency also entails increasing wealth: that is, increasing the available quantity of goods through entrepreneurial creativity, namely through trade, innovation, and recognising opportunity. ...

"[T]he institution of private property deserves a separate chapter. By focussing on it, the Austrian School of Economics from Mises, Hayek, Rothbard, Kirzner and Hoppe to Huerta de Soto has demonstrated the impossibility of socialism, thereby dismantling the illusory idea of John Stuart Mill that postulated independence between production and distribution; a form of academic deafness that led to socialism, and cost the world the lives of 150 million human beings -- while those who managed to survive the terror, did so in absurd poverty.

In line with [those writers'] previous remarks, and consistent with Xenophon's second [point], economic theory has identified four sources of economic progress.

First, there's the division of labour, which was illustrated by Adam Smith through the pin factory example. At its core, this is a mechanism that generates productivity gains, manifested as increasing returns. Although its limit is determined by market size, the size of the market is positively affected by this process. However, it is also worth noting that this virtuous process is not infinite and that its ultimate limit lies in the endowment of initial resources.

Second, there is the accumulation of capital, both physical and human. With regard to physical capital, the interaction between saving and investment is crucial, highlighting the fundamental role of capital markets and of the financial system in carrying out such intermediation. On the human capital side, the focus should not be limited to education alone, but should also include the development of cognitive capacities from birth, as well as nutrition and health, basic elements for gaining access to education and the labour market.

Third, there is technological progress, which consists in being able to produce a greater quantity of goods with the same amount of resources, or to produce the same output using a smaller quantity of inputs.

Finally, there is entrepreneurial spirit, or rather the entrepreneurial function, which, according to Professor Huerta De Soto constitutes the main driver of the economic growth process. Because, although the three factors mentioned are important, without entrepreneurs, there can be no production, and living standards would be extremely precarious.

In fact, the entrepreneurial function is not so much focused on short-term efficiency, but rather on increasing the quality of goods and services, which, in turn, leads to higher standards of living. On this basis, what truly matters is to expand the frontier of production possibilities to the maximum extent possible.

Thus, dynamic efficiency can be understood as an economy's capacity to foster entrepreneurial creativity and coordination.

In turn, the criterion of dynamic efficiency is inseparably linked to the concept of the entrepreneurial function, which is that typically human capacity to perceive profit opportunities that arise in the environment and to act accordingly to take advantage of them. This makes the task of discovering and creating new ends and means fundamental, driving spontaneous coordination to resolve market imbalances.

Moreover, this definition of dynamic efficiency proposed by Huerta de Soto coherently and appropriately combines Schumpeter’s idea of creative destruction with North's concept of adaptive efficiency.

Naturally, given the role of the entrepreneurial function, the institutions under which it develops are of vital importance. In this regard, both Douglass North and Jesús Huerta de Soto consider one of the key functions of institutions to be that of reducing uncertainty.

So, while North presents them as a set of humanly devised constraints that structure social interaction in a repetitive manner, Huerta de Soto considers that these institutions, conceived by human beings, emerge spontaneously from a process of social interaction without being designed by any single individual, and that they reduce uncertainty in the market process.

As Roy Cordato points out, the appropriate institutional framework is one that favours entrepreneurial discovery and coordination. Accordingly, within this framework, economic policy should aim to identify and remove all artificial barriers that hinder the entrepreneurial process and voluntary exchanges.

Given the decisive influence of institutions on economic progress, this directs our attention to the importance of ethics, as societies that adhere to stronger moral values and ethical principles in support of institutions will be dynamically more efficient and will therefore enjoy greater prosperity.

Accordingly, the fundamental ethical problem is a search for the best way to foster entrepreneurial coordination and creation.

Therefore, in the field of social ethics, we conclude that conceiving human beings as creative and coordinating actors entails accepting axiomatically the principle that every human being has the right to appropriate the results of their entrepreneurial creativity.

So the private appropriation of the fruits of what entrepreneurs create and discover is a principle of natural law because if an author were unable to appropriate what they create or discover, their capacity to detect profit opportunities would be blocked, and the incentive to carry out their actions would disappear. Ultimately, the ethical principle just stated is the fundamental ethical foundation of the entire market economy.

So, what we've just demonstrated is that free enterprise capitalism is not only just but also efficient and also that it is the one that maximises growth.

[Full speech here]

RELATED: Here's Per Bylund at the latest Ludwig Von Mises conference explaining that it's entrepreneurs, not politicians, who change the world for the better.


Friday, 13 March 2026

"One long filibuster to keep poor people out of her area"

This is an amusing account below of an important public meeting. Important in the context of making Auckland an affordable city.

Here's some quick context: Auckland's town planners have strangled the city in red tape for years. In recent times however, many planners and councillors (and mayor Wayne Brown) have come around to the realisation that the fewer houses built, the higher the prices for those houses: that, just maybe, people might be allowed to do a bit more on their land, to maybe build a little more densely. 

Opposing this, of course, are the councillors and politicians of the leafier suburbs like Christine Fletcher -- and of course David Seymour, who's dropped his party's alleged principles about property rights to wring his hands instead about there being 'no density without infrastructure.' 

There's no greater hand wringer than Christopher Luxon however, who decided over summer that Auckland Council must 'downzone' their proposed plan change that would allow greater density.

So this meeting Wednesday night was to confirm where the push for greater density would be maintained in the upcoming Plan (where would be upzoned), and where that push would be relaxed a little (where would be downzoned). 

And with that introduction, here's Hayden Donnell ...

When the government’s efforts to intensify Auckland were debated at council back in August last year, critics took turns wringing their hands about the strain it would place on infrastructure. Plan Change 120 [which will allow greater density] could end up putting apartments in places that weren’t set up to handle them, they fretted. “Ultimately you can’t do all this upzoning without making the commitment to provide the infrastructure that will support it,” warned Albert-Eden-Puketāpapa ward councillor Christine Fletcher ...

Yesterday the worriers got their wish. Thanks to a government backdown wrangled over chardonnays and summer barbecues, councillors are allowed to reduce the capacity in the new plan from two million to 1.6 million houses. Council’s policy and planning committee was meeting to decide where to make those cuts, and its chair Richard Hills started out explaining the staff recommendations to prioritise places 10km or more from the city centre. Asked why those areas should get first dibs on downzoning, council planner John Duguid was clear: it was because the land within 10km of the city centre had the best access to public transport, employment opportunities, regional amenities like parks and pools and three waters capacity, as measured by Watercare:

Map of Auckland showing water network capacity. Areas are shaded by capacity: green (with capacity), teal (closely monitored), blue-green (limited capacity), orange (no capacity now/long-term), and labeled locations.
Three waters capacity in the central areas is set to improve even more when the Central Interceptor comes online soon. (Image: Watercare)

It should have been a celebration. But what would you know, most of the people who were once so concerned about ensuring housing is near infrastructure weren’t happy. Instead they were stewing over the revelation that the places with the best infrastructure were in their well-to-do wards. North Shore councillor John Gillon had looked at the maps and found that a 10km radius from the city centre would include the entire area he represents. He moved an amendment, seconded by Fletcher, to delete the 10km clause, saying he was “concerned” about the figure.

Waitākere councillor Shane Henderson was having none of it. He pointed out that west and south Auckland had accepted the vast bulk of the new houses in Auckland since the Unitary Plan passed in 2016. As for strain on infrastructure, those areas have limited pipe capacity and less access to public transport, and we see the effects of that outside-in planning in rush-hour congestion, parking shortages and sewage overflows, he said. Henderson argued Fletcher and Gillon were engaged in “a poorly dressed up move to take away intensification from the best-equipped parts of the city”. “The intention is simple: to downzone wealthy suburbs. There is no sensible reason for excluding central isthmus communities – again –  from doing their part.”

The mayor was, if anything, more blunt. He said Gillon’s motion was aimed at putting housing in Pukekohe rather than areas close to “all the infrastructure”. “I don’t want to see endless sprawl just so nimbys in Parnell and politicians can get re-elected,” he said, in what appeared to be a shot at his political nemesis, Act leader David Seymour. “That’s disgraceful, I can’t vote for it.” ...

As Brown saw it, his colleagues’ first purpose was elitism. But if they had a second priority, it was delay. Gillon and Fletcher also put forward an amendment proposing to ask the government for more time to enact Plan Change 120. ...

The demand was familiar. Fletcher has asked for more consultation in just about every planning meeting for years, and the mayor was incensed. “I want to get out of this without further delay and dithering,” he said. “God almighty, it would be great to do something this three-year period.” ...

“For fuck’s sake, get on with it,” he said, as Fletcher spoke for the final time. ...

Afterward, Brown expanded on his frustration with Fletcher, saying the meeting was “one long filibuster to stop poor people living in her area.” 

Read the whole thing here. It's an entertaining lunchtime read.

[Pics from Spinoff]

"I want to help the poor"


Cartoonist unknown

Thursday, 12 March 2026

"All of a sudden mass media is interested in the civilian casualties of the war in Iran!"

The media is slowly waking up to the reaction inside Iran to US-Israeli bombing, beginning to report on the perspective of Iranians living inside there who look forward to a regime change.

It's an unusual moment. People being bombed who are welcoming the bombing.

The New York Times spoke to an engineer in Tehran who said many in the city were comfortable with U.S. bombings and that “they are upset if there is a night without bombing, and fear the war might end while the regime remains. You can see this clearly":
The experience of being bombed is even more terrifying because the government is sharing little information and sending few alerts, said Ali, an engineer in Tehran. Ordinary Iranians are cut off from the internet, and Ali said people had resorted to calling friends and relatives in areas where they saw fighter jets headed.

The ferocity of the attacks has divided sentiment among opponents of the government after a brutal crackdown on nationwide protests by security forces last January. Thousands were killed.

"Some people are comfortable with the bombings - I know that may sound strange," said Ali. "They are upset if there is a night without bombing, and fear the war might end while the regime remains. You can see this clearly. People say we have already paid enough of a price and the Islamic republic must go."

Ali said he was sympathetic to that view. "Our lives have no value for the Islamic republic," he said. "We are the government's human shields."






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