"It's 2029 [the Iranian regime] was bloodied and enraged, but not defeated, in a 3-week aerial campaign in 2026. They've had 3 years to rebuild. Not their civilian infrastructure -- their arsenal of drones and hypersononic missiles. Plus their capacity to manufacture them.
"Now the hardened underground facilities where they make, store, and launch them are now safely below the penetration depth of US bunker-busting bombs.
"In technology development, three years is an eternity.
"The new drones are faster, have a smaller radar signature, and are much smarter. Their hypersononic missiles have much longer range. They can hit anywhere in Europe. From a ship, they can hit anywhere in the US.
"Three years was also enough for [the regime] to enrich uranium to weapons grade. And to perfect their warhead design. And to manufacture dozens of them
"One fine morning -- Sep 11, by purest coincidence -- the US Fifth Fleet is hit by a swarm of drones. In the chaos, distracting the US military, three salvos of hypersonic missiles are launched. Tel Aviv goes up in radioactive smoke six minutes later. 15 to 20 minutes later, countries friendly to the US -- Germany and the UK -- get hit.
"And ships disguised as tankers launch at the US from both oceans.
"The survivors wonder what happened. They had confused two different things:
- the 2026 war had an unconstitutional start;
- Iran was not a serious threat.
"And nuclear. ...
"This is what the next Iran war would look like if the US abandons this one (i.e. loses) now. ...
"There is an elephant in the room. Let's acknowledge it. If we lose now, [the Iranian regime] will be emboldened. It may take them a year to rebuild their arsenal and make longer range missiles, and nuclear warheads. But they will do it, and unleash terror on a global scale. ...
"I did not say that I think the US will do this. I say if the US does this, then the result is predictable. ...
Not immediately. [The regime's] capability has been degraded. They will rebuild capability, and add much more (including nukes). And start the next war, at the moment they choose.
"I have made no secret of the fact that I think Trump is a terrible president, a dishonest narcissist who operates on whim and whose whims change ten times a minute.
"The major risk of a war like this with a terrible Commander in Chief like this is that his whim will change. ...
"The risk is TACO: the risk of Trump leading this attack is that he will chicken out, and give up.
"[Now it's begun] we shouldn't work to push him to do that. ...
"This is an argument for not going to war in the first place. But once the war is going, it is not an argument for abandoning it!
"'When you're going through hell--keep going!' (Winston Churchill)."~ Donal Coyote
2 comments:
Sorry, so Trump can't win?
Iran was onto mass producing Noabs, which would have been existential end for Israel. And then enough 60% enriched uranium to make eleven nuclear bombs.
Israel and the West would not have survived that scenario.
Trump is the only man in America (fortuitously president the same time as Netanyahu) who would ever have waged this war on Iranian Regime, you know no one else would until a bomb was detonated over Tel Aviv.
But now you blog on TACO ???
I think, Peter, your brand of libertarianism is a fucking entitled cop out. No different from the deranged Lefties backing the bloody regime only because they hate Trump so much.
Over it.
Mark, Trump has not bothered dismantling the Venezuelan regime, he just removed the head. It would have been comparatively easy to remove it, and place the real winner of the last Venezuelan election in charge, and for it to be a US ally. He has to stay the distance, not do a "deal" with Tehran, although the main advantage of Trump is no one really knows what he will do. We can only hope he doesn't chicken out. The evidence of his strength on foreign affairs is very mixed.
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