Take a quick look at the most consequential graph of the last two decades, below.
But first, the news: the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Change (i.e., the IPCC, the organisation promoting the Climate Scare) has officially withdrawn the warmist scenario known as RCP8.5.
This is roughly what the IPCC's RCP8.5 predicts:
For context, here's the satellite record for the last few decades:
So what's this RCP8.5 then? The simple answer is that it's the scaremongering scenario sold to "policymakers" as their "business-as-usual" scenario. Here in New Zealand it's become "their main planning scenario with authorities planning for 'managed retreat,' forced abandonment of settlements, and insurance companies refusing to insure."
As Quico Toro explains, if the RCP8.5 scenario were comparable with models used to design bridges, it would result in bridges designed to take around 250 M1 Abrams tanks all at once. Not just unrealistic, but illusionary.
The “8.5” in RCP8.5 refers to the amount of added solar energy the atmosphere will trap by 2100—specifically, 8.5 watts per square meter. That’s very high—likely to bring about a shocking 5 degrees of global warming above pre-industrial levels.
RCP8.5 was the kind of climate scenario lurking behind Greta Thunberg’s accusation, in her September 2019 speech at the UN Climate Action Summit, that “we are in the beginning of a mass extinction.” It’s the kind of pathway young people in England were thinking about when they decided they needed to launch “Extinction Rebellion.” It’s been a fundraising bonanza for climate activist groups from Adelaide to Zurich, the main player in every single alarmist climate critique you’ve read in the last 15 years.
And it’s been the default setting for literally thousands of climate science papers—Google Scholar lists more than 30,000 published since 2018 alone. It was from this kind of research that we got lurid papers like “Future of the human climate niche,” where respectable Dutch climate scientists claimed that one in three human beings live in regions that will become unlivable in the next 50 years. It was this kind of research that gave rise to countless breathless headlines about how outdoor labor was about to become impossible across much of the tropical world, and alarmist documentaries claiming the ocean was about to end up without any fish. It was RCP8.5 that turned David Wallace-Wells’s “The Uninhabitable Earth” into the most read story in the history of New York Magazine, and later propelled the book version to the top of the New York Times best-seller list.
The story of RCP8.5 is ultimately the story of what goes wrong when people convinced they are defending “The Science” catastrophically misunderstand how science works, and when politicized activists glom onto legitimate scientific tools and insist on ramming the round peg of probabilistic forecasting into the square hole of fundraising emails.
As we say above, here in New Zealand millions of words have been written based on the RCP8.5 scenario leading to authorities planning for 'managed retreat,' for forced abandonment of settlements, for insurance companies refusing to insure, for governments slowly but surely strangling our production of energy.
In the month since this became news however, there has been precisely ONE mention of RCP8.5's withdrawal in the local media. One.
What does that tell you?
1 comment:
Thanks for another well-informed and sensible report on this subject, Peter. It should also be noted that these climate alarmists (including the UN) chose to begin comparisons from "pre-industrial levels" dating circa 1800AD. This period reflects the end of what is known as the "Little Ice Age"! It would be useful to note that:
"The Little Ice Age was a prolonged period of regional cooling in Europe, lasting from the early 14th century to the mid-19th century a prolonged period of regional cooling in Europe, lasting from the early 14th century to the mid-19th century. It brought severe winters, expanded glaciers, and devastating crop failures. This climate crisis deeply disrupted agricultural economies and contributed to widespread famine, social unrest, and political instability."
Beginning a series of comparisons to illustrate "global warming" was and remains disingenuous.
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