Some fascinating research by Tim Hughes and his team at Treasury reveals that "25-30% of people born in New Zealand are living elsewhere by age 30."
We find that only about a third of emigration each year is of the NZ-born, and about 40% of NZ-born emigrants return to live in NZ again. Those with the highest qualifications are most likely to leave but also the most likely to return. Those who return earn more and pay more tax than those never to leave.
Yet much emigration is permanent and the diaspora is still substantial, with 25-30% of each birth cohort living elsewhere by age 30. Approximately $4b of public investment in human capital [sic] each year is ultimately lost to emigration, needing to be replaced with migration from other countries.
Complementary research further reveals that this "human capital [sic] is replaced via migration of people born elsewhere.
Foreign-born residents contribute a disproportionate share of personal tax revenue, reflecting their age structure and other factors.
In 2024, foreign-born NZ residents made up 32% of the population, and paid 38% of the personal tax.
This analysis helps demonstrate the growing importance of migration policy settings for fiscal sustainability.
[hat tip Eric Crampton]
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