Friday 12 July 2024

"Neither climate nor climate change cause, fuel, or influence weather. Yes, you read that right"


"It is now a ubiquitous cultural ritual to blame any and every weather event on climate change. Those hot days? Climate change. That hurricane? Climate change. The flood somewhere that I saw on social media? Climate change.
    "With today’s post, the first in a series, I go beyond the cartoonish media caricatures of climate change, which I expect are here to stay, and explore the actual science of extreme events — how they may or may not be changing, and how we think we know what we know, and what we simply cannot know. ...
    "Let’s correct one pervasive and pathological misunderstanding endemic across the media and in policy, and sometimes spotted seeping into peer-reviewed scientific research:
Neither climate nor climate change cause, fuel, or influence weather.
"Yes, you read that right.
    "Climate change is a change in the statistics of weather — It is an outcome, not a cause.
    "I often use hitting in baseball as an analogy. A hitter’s batting average does not cause hits. Instead, a batter’s hits result in their overall batting average. Lots of things can change a batter’s hitting performance, but batting average change is not one of them.


"As the Google NGrams figure above indicates, the idea that climate change is a causal agent has become increasingly common in recent decades, departing dramatically from its use in the IPCC and much of the scientific community. I am sure you can point to examples that you encounter every day. ...
    "Weather can be characterised statistically, but weather does not occur as a result of simple statistical processes. Weather is the the integrated result of at least: dynamical, thermodynamical, chaotic, societal, biospheric, cryospheric, lithospheric, oceanic, vulcanological, solar, and, yes, stochastic processes."
~ Roger Pielke Jr. from his post 'Climate-Fuelled Extreme Weather.' [Emphasis in the original. Hat tip Kip Hansen]

 

1 comment:

Chris Morris said...

Roger (as almost always) makes a very relevant comment. Climate is just the average of the weather statistics - nothing more and nothing less. For climate to change, the weather has to change - more sun, more rain, warmer nights etc. And for the statistics to be meaningful, it has to be over a long enough period so that anomalies don't have a major influence. 30 year averages never look spectacular. That is why the alarmists don't quote them.
It is why old school economists with their maths training in extracting meaningful data out of noisy information are often the best at analysis or at a minimum, review. Why Wegman was correct.