"Europe is at a critical turning point in its history."
“President, Mr. Prime Minister, Ladies and Gentlemen Ministers, My dear colleagues,
"Europe is at a critical turning point in its history. The American shield is crumbling, Ukraine risks being abandoned, Russia strengthened. Washington has become the court of Nero ...
"This is a tragedy for the free world, but it is first and foremost a tragedy for the United States. Trump’s message is that there is no point in being his ally since he will not defend you, he will impose more customs duties on you than on his enemies and will threaten to seize your territories while supporting the dictatorships that invade you.
"The king of the deal is showing what the art of the deal is all about. He thinks he will intimidate China by lying down before Putin—but Xi Jinping, faced with such a shipwreck, is probably accelerating preparations for the invasion of Taiwan.
"Never in history has a President of the United States capitulated to the enemy. Never has anyone supported an aggressor against an ally. Never has anyone trampled on the American Constitution, issued so many illegal decrees, dismissed judges who could have prevented him from doing so, dismissed the military general staff in one fell swoop, weakened all checks and balances, and taken control of social media.
"This is not an illiberal drift, it is the beginning of the confiscation of democracy. Let us remember that it took only one month, three weeks and two days to bring down the Weimar Republic and its Constitution.
"I have faith in the strength of American democracy, and the country is already protesting. But in one month, Trump has done more harm to America than in four years of his last presidency. We were at war with a dictator, now we are fighting a dictator backed by a traitor.
"Eight days ago, at the very moment that Trump was rubbing Macron’s back in the White House, the United States voted at the UN with Russia and North Korea against the Europeans demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops.
"Two days later, in the Oval Office, the military-service shirker was giving war hero Zelensky lessons in morality and strategy before dismissing him like a groom, ordering him to submit or resign.
"Tonight, he took another step into infamy by stopping the delivery of weapons that had been promised. What to do in the face of this betrayal? The answer is simple: face it.
"And first of all, let’s not be mistaken. The defeat of Ukraine would be the defeat of Europe. The Baltic States, Georgia, Moldova are already on the list. Putin’s goal is to return to Yalta, where half the continent was ceded to Stalin.
"The countries of the South are waiting for the outcome of the conflict to decide whether they should continue to respect Europe or whether they are now free to trample on it.
"What Putin wants is the end of the order put in place by the United States and its allies 80 years ago, with its first principle being the prohibition of acquiring territory by force.
"This idea is at the very source of the UN, where today Americans vote in favour of the aggressor and against the attacked, because the Trumpian vision coincides with that of Putin: a return to spheres of influence, the great powers dictating the fate of small countries.
Mine is Greenland, Panama and Canada; yours are Ukraine, the Baltics and Eastern Europe; his is Taiwan and the China Sea.
"At the parties of the oligarchs of the Gulf of Mar-a-Lago, this is called 'diplomatic realism.'
"So we are alone. But the talk that Putin cannot be resisted is false. Contrary to the Kremlin’s propaganda, Russia is in bad shape. In three years, the so-called second-largest army in the world has managed to grab only crumbs from a country three times less populated.
"Interest rates at 25%, the collapse of foreign exchange and gold reserves, the demographic collapse show that it is on the brink of the abyss. The American helping hand to Putin is the biggest strategic mistake ever made in a war.
"The shock is violent, but it has a virtue. Europeans are coming out of denial. They understood in one day in Munich that the survival of Ukraine and the future of Europe are in their hands ...
"It is a Herculean task, but it is on its success or failure that the leaders of today’s democratic Europe will be judged in the history books. ...
"Europe will only become a military power again by becoming an industrial power again. ... But the real rearmament of Europe is its moral rearmament.
"We must convince public opinion in the face of war weariness and fear, and especially in the face of Putin’s cronies, the extreme right and the extreme left.
"They argued again yesterday in the National Assembly ... They say they want peace. What neither they nor Trump say is that their peace is capitulation, the peace of defeat, the replacement of de Gaulle Zelensky by a Ukrainian Pétain at the beck and call of Putin. ...
"Is this the end of the Atlantic Alliance? The risk is great. But in the last few days, the public humiliation of Zelensky and all the crazy decisions taken in the last month have finally made the Americans react.
"Polls are falling. Republican lawmakers are being greeted by hostile crowds in their constituencies. Even Fox News is becoming critical.
"The Trumpists are no longer in their majesty. They control the executive, the Parliament, the Supreme Court and social networks.
"But in American history, the freedom fighters have always prevailed. They are beginning to raise their heads.
"The fate of Ukraine is being played out in the trenches, but it also depends on those in the United States who want to defend democracy, and here on our ability to unite Europeans, to find the means for their common defense, and to make Europe the power that it once was in history and that it hesitates to become again.
"Our parents defeated fascism and communism at great cost.
"The task of our generation is to defeat the totalitarianisms of the 21st century.
"Long live free Ukraine, long live democratic Europe.”
-Claude Malhuret speaking to the French Senate Tuesday March 4 2025.
Some excellent comments here, especially the points about the weakness of Russia in general and her military in particular.
I am eager to soon see French, British and German boots on the ground in Ukraine, along with their weapon systems, together with other members of NATO, especially the Poles who have been spending 4%+ on defense and have a well-trained and capable military.
There are some problems to address however: - Germany in 2018 had large proportions of their tanks, planes and ships out of service. Little has improved since then. - Denmark has a military “that consists of ships that cannot sail. Planes that cannot fly. And cannons that cannot fire. Everything is missing” - The Royal Armoured Corps has not been able to deploy a realistic Challenger 2 regiment of 59 tanks for many years. Lack of available Challenger 2s has meant that the army’s ambition for MBTs has been at the 20 to 25 level, at the very best. Same with artillery and other armoured vehicles.
And that's before we get the fighting men themselves. As the rather embittered anarchist (embittered by the coal mining strikes v Thatcher in 1984), Dr Lisa McKenzie put it:
What was once the Labour heartlands, the de-industrialized parts of the country, have also been the typical recruiting fields for the British Soldier – the white working class. These communities have been badly let down by all politicians have become deeply resentful and detached from what is happening within the politics, media and chattering classes of London. … his brand of Labour – middle-class metropolitan liberals – will never offer up their own children for military service and will look north towards the very people they have spent the nine years since the Brexit referendum accusing of being racists, bigots, and xenophobes.
Something already obvious as the RAF begs people to apply once more, assuring them that DEI is a thing of the past (wink). And something the rest of Europe (Poland and some former Soviet satellites aside) is also experiencing.
That's the problem with sneering at patriotism of course: you never know when you're going to need it.
And so elite European warmongers narrate their way to the big slaughter they all seek. They know they need to enmesh the USA. They'll try hook and crook to get that to happen. The signs are they may well succeed in pulling it off (just as they have done more than once over the last 100 years or so). Their success in this endeavour would be an horrific tragedy for many people and their families. It WILL be the end of the EU and of NATO, but it will also be the finish of Europe as we know it- culture and all.
French, German, British, Polish and anyone else foolish enough to place their "boots on the ground" will promptly find themselves being eliminated at a furious pace. This is what the US military predicts will happen. They've modelled it extensively and repeatedly. They published the expected casualty rate. It is severe.
European and US wonder weapons systems failed in Ukraine. The training and planning provided to Ukraine also failed. This isn't going to change much in the immediate and intermediate future. It will get much worse.
The EU is going broke. The UK is broke. There is little or no collateral for all the borrowing they've made. Capital is fleeing. Specie is fleeing. Their industry is in general collapse. They're being ejected from countries they exploited for raw materials and collateral at cents on the dollar. That's ceasing.
It is by now well known that energy throughout Europe is expensive. It used to be cheap. Now that it isn't the whole EU mess has become uncompetitive internationally. It has also become obvious that its logistic chain is weak- fragile even.
Tom makes important points with the quotes about where the British soldier was traditionally recruited. These very people and their families have been vilified, denigrated, impoverished, assaulted, seen their families and communities placed under siege or worse- "dis-established". They've experienced prejudice, the imposition of unjust regulation, jerrymandered courts, being declared as redundant, treated as the unnecessary people of the British Isles. It is similar in France. It is similar in Germany. It is similar in Romania. It is similar all over the EU. Why would any young person join the military to fight on behalf of those very ones who treated them and theirs so viciously for so long?
+++++++++
Some economic data to ponder. Dec 2024.
Russian Federation under sanction Growth rate 4.1% Unemployment rate 2.3% Government debt as a percentage of GDP 14.5%
United Kingdom Growth rate 0.8%* Unemployment rate 4.4% Govt debt as a percentage of GDP 97.2% (excluding public sector banks)
EU Growth rate 0.9%* Unemployment rate 5.9% Govt debt as a percentage of GDP 81.6%
*most EU and UK economic growth is through finance and real estate, not manufacturing or production.
How are these failing uneconomic insolvencies going to "re-arm", let alone "fight"? With what? Now you see why they are desperate to entrap the "help" to go all in. A decent big war is the perfect cover for strategic defaults.
I'm beginning to think it's correct that "HJ" is a Russian operative. In any case, he/she/it is certainly just speaking flawed Russian talking points rather than speaking in good faith.
As analyst Mark Sobel says: "Russia's short-term growth can't mark degradation. .. Economic policy-makers can support growth in the short run with large fiscal stimulus or credit expansion and post good growth numbers. Given strong buffers and the populace’s seeming ability to tolerate hardship, Russia may well be able to sustain such performance for several years.
"But ‘resilience’ is a misnomer. Russia is masking a process of significant economic degradation that will continue well into the future and further marginalise its global footprint."
Short-term? Yes. For example (only looking at Putin's economic points instead of his militaristic bluster): * yes, if looked at in isolation, GDP growth for 2024 looks good, ** but GDP is being goosed up by governmnet's military spending (which the figure of GDP ridiculously measures) ** and even with that, 2024's GDP is still some 10% *below* the anaemic GDP figure of 2022, pre-invasion. * yes, if looked at in isolation, Russian government debt is low ** but there's a good reason for that: Russian govt debt levels/gdp are comparable to many other developing economies (what we used to call "third world"), which Russia still is ** and there's another good reason: since Russia defaulted on its govt debt in 1998, very few financiers have wanted to lend to her govt ** that hasn't changed, too few having enoiugh trust in the Russian govt to risk their money there ** so, without capital, Russian govt has followed a "de-industrialisation" plan promoting simple resource extraction, from which itself and oligarchs can plunder * yes, if looked at isolation, unemployment looks good at 2.1% ** but these figures are easy to guess with a dictator sending young men to die in Putin's meat grinder — young men who are (or were) the country's future; as 'Hayek' says in the famous rap, "If every worker were staffed in the army and fleet/We’d have full employment and nothing to eat"
Alexander Kolyander summarises: "Russia’s economic growth is heavily tied to military spending, with investments tilted toward war-related industries, import substitution, and infrastructure projects to facilitate trade with China. In the absence of defense spending, Russia’s economy would likely stagnate. Wartime production and import substitution have combined with a shrinking workforce to overheat the economy, with rising wages and reduced civilian capacity producing virtually uncontrollable consumer-price inflation, despite record-high interest rates."
In short, "Russia’s wartime economic growth ... is financed by mortgaging the country’s future."
Or in other words, Russia is in a unique situation — uniquely bad, of its own making; looking at short-term figures alone without the wider context *may* be justified in contrasting and comparing "normal" nations in normal times.
Thanks PC for exposing that reality behind the propaganda. HJ's latest outburst and his reference to European leaders as "warmongers" sounds eerily like what the fascists calling Churchill in the 1930's.
As for the gloomy picture being painted about Europe's economy, that's not what I'm hearing from the share investment advice I pay for, which has a good track record in my experience calling opportunities before it's obvious. Yes, Europe has been lacklustre in recent decades, but it's now being touted as an investor's opportunity with growth potential likely to take off, especially compared to the relatively over-valued nature of the US share market, and the sabotage Trump's tariffs will no doubt effect. The article below is mostly behind a paywall, but the intro gives you the gist. https://www.wealthmorning.com/2024/05/16/651757/europe-a-brave-new-opportunity/
4 comments:
Some excellent comments here, especially the points about the weakness of Russia in general and her military in particular.
I am eager to soon see French, British and German boots on the ground in Ukraine, along with their weapon systems, together with other members of NATO, especially the Poles who have been spending 4%+ on defense and have a well-trained and capable military.
There are some problems to address however:
- Germany in 2018 had large proportions of their tanks, planes and ships out of service. Little has improved since then.
- Denmark has a military “that consists of ships that cannot sail. Planes that cannot fly. And cannons that cannot fire. Everything is missing”
- The Royal Armoured Corps has not been able to deploy a realistic Challenger 2 regiment of 59 tanks for many years. Lack of available Challenger 2s has meant that the army’s ambition for MBTs has been at the 20 to 25 level, at the very best. Same with artillery and other armoured vehicles.
And that's before we get the fighting men themselves. As the rather embittered anarchist (embittered by the coal mining strikes v Thatcher in 1984), Dr Lisa McKenzie put it:
What was once the Labour heartlands, the de-industrialized parts of the country, have also been the typical recruiting fields for the British Soldier – the white working class. These communities have been badly let down by all politicians have become deeply resentful and detached from what is happening within the politics, media and chattering classes of London.
…
his brand of Labour – middle-class metropolitan liberals – will never offer up their own children for military service and will look north towards the very people they have spent the nine years since the Brexit referendum accusing of being racists, bigots, and xenophobes.
Something already obvious as the RAF begs people to apply once more, assuring them that DEI is a thing of the past (wink). And something the rest of Europe (Poland and some former Soviet satellites aside) is also experiencing.
That's the problem with sneering at patriotism of course: you never know when you're going to need it.
And so elite European warmongers narrate their way to the big slaughter they all seek. They know they need to enmesh the USA. They'll try hook and crook to get that to happen. The signs are they may well succeed in pulling it off (just as they have done more than once over the last 100 years or so). Their success in this endeavour would be an horrific tragedy for many people and their families. It WILL be the end of the EU and of NATO, but it will also be the finish of Europe as we know it- culture and all.
French, German, British, Polish and anyone else foolish enough to place their "boots on the ground" will promptly find themselves being eliminated at a furious pace. This is what the US military predicts will happen. They've modelled it extensively and repeatedly. They published the expected casualty rate. It is severe.
European and US wonder weapons systems failed in Ukraine. The training and planning provided to Ukraine also failed. This isn't going to change much in the immediate and intermediate future. It will get much worse.
The EU is going broke. The UK is broke. There is little or no collateral for all the borrowing they've made. Capital is fleeing. Specie is fleeing. Their industry is in general collapse. They're being ejected from countries they exploited for raw materials and collateral at cents on the dollar. That's ceasing.
It is by now well known that energy throughout Europe is expensive. It used to be cheap. Now that it isn't the whole EU mess has become uncompetitive internationally. It has also become obvious that its logistic chain is weak- fragile even.
Tom makes important points with the quotes about where the British soldier was traditionally recruited. These very people and their families have been vilified, denigrated, impoverished, assaulted, seen their families and communities placed under siege or worse- "dis-established". They've experienced prejudice, the imposition of unjust regulation, jerrymandered courts, being declared as redundant, treated as the unnecessary people of the British Isles. It is similar in France. It is similar in Germany. It is similar in Romania. It is similar all over the EU. Why would any young person join the military to fight on behalf of those very ones who treated them and theirs so viciously for so long?
+++++++++
Some economic data to ponder.
Dec 2024.
Russian Federation under sanction
Growth rate 4.1%
Unemployment rate 2.3%
Government debt as a percentage of GDP 14.5%
United Kingdom
Growth rate 0.8%*
Unemployment rate 4.4%
Govt debt as a percentage of GDP 97.2% (excluding public sector banks)
EU
Growth rate 0.9%*
Unemployment rate 5.9%
Govt debt as a percentage of GDP 81.6%
*most EU and UK economic growth is through finance and real estate, not manufacturing or production.
How are these failing uneconomic insolvencies going to "re-arm", let alone "fight"? With what? Now you see why they are desperate to entrap the "help" to go all in. A decent big war is the perfect cover for strategic defaults.
God Bless America!
HJ
I'm beginning to think it's correct that "HJ" is a Russian operative. In any case, he/she/it is certainly just speaking flawed Russian talking points rather than speaking in good faith.
As analyst Mark Sobel says: "Russia's short-term growth can't mark degradation. .. Economic policy-makers can support growth in the short run with large fiscal stimulus or credit expansion and post good growth numbers. Given strong buffers and the populace’s seeming ability to tolerate hardship, Russia may well be able to sustain such performance for several years.
"But ‘resilience’ is a misnomer. Russia is masking a process of significant economic degradation that will continue well into the future and further marginalise its global footprint."
Short-term? Yes. For example (only looking at Putin's economic points instead of his militaristic bluster):
* yes, if looked at in isolation, GDP growth for 2024 looks good,
** but GDP is being goosed up by governmnet's military spending (which the figure of GDP ridiculously measures)
** and even with that, 2024's GDP is still some 10% *below* the anaemic GDP figure of 2022, pre-invasion.
* yes, if looked at in isolation, Russian government debt is low
** but there's a good reason for that: Russian govt debt levels/gdp are comparable to many other developing economies (what we used to call "third world"), which Russia still is
** and there's another good reason: since Russia defaulted on its govt debt in 1998, very few financiers have wanted to lend to her govt
** that hasn't changed, too few having enoiugh trust in the Russian govt to risk their money there
** so, without capital, Russian govt has followed a "de-industrialisation" plan promoting simple resource extraction, from which itself and oligarchs can plunder
* yes, if looked at isolation, unemployment looks good at 2.1%
** but these figures are easy to guess with a dictator sending young men to die in Putin's meat grinder — young men who are (or were) the country's future; as 'Hayek' says in the famous rap, "If every worker were staffed in the army and fleet/We’d have full employment and nothing to eat"
Alexander Kolyander summarises: "Russia’s economic growth is heavily tied to military spending, with investments tilted toward war-related industries, import substitution, and infrastructure projects to facilitate trade with China. In the absence of defense spending, Russia’s economy would likely stagnate.
Wartime production and import substitution have combined with a shrinking workforce to overheat the economy, with rising wages and reduced civilian capacity producing virtually uncontrollable consumer-price inflation, despite record-high interest rates."
In short, "Russia’s wartime economic growth ... is financed by mortgaging the country’s future."
Or in other words, Russia is in a unique situation — uniquely bad, of its own making; looking at short-term figures alone without the wider context *may* be justified in contrasting and comparing "normal" nations in normal times.
But Russia is neither.
Thanks PC for exposing that reality behind the propaganda. HJ's latest outburst and his reference to European leaders as "warmongers" sounds eerily like what the fascists calling Churchill in the 1930's.
As for the gloomy picture being painted about Europe's economy, that's not what I'm hearing from the share investment advice I pay for, which has a good track record in my experience calling opportunities before it's obvious. Yes, Europe has been lacklustre in recent decades, but it's now being touted as an investor's opportunity with growth potential likely to take off, especially compared to the relatively over-valued nature of the US share market, and the sabotage Trump's tariffs will no doubt effect. The article below is mostly behind a paywall, but the intro gives you the gist.
https://www.wealthmorning.com/2024/05/16/651757/europe-a-brave-new-opportunity/
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