Monday, 3 February 2025

Tariffs, Trump & the Chicken Wars


News this morning that that the dumbest US president in some time has started the dumbest trade war in history’ — that evaluation, by the way, is by the Wall Street Journal— that's 25% tariffs slapped on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China, with tit-for-tat retaliation already promised in return.  (Or as James Valliant & Daniel Kraus explain things more accurately: 'Trump Puts a New Tax on Americans–Canada Shoots Itself in Return.')

Here's a bit of an explainer about tariffs for you to help you get your head around it all, along with an 'amusing' story about the Chicken Wars   ...




PS: The US Tax Foundation estimates Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China will:  
  • Increase taxes by $1.2T (2025-2034)  
  • Reduce GDP by 0.4%  Reduce employment by 344k jobs  
  • Result in an average tax increase of $830 per US household (2025)
And the Wall Street Journal estimates that Trump's tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminium.
will punish American workers, invite retaliation that will harm U.S. exports, divide his political coalition at home, anger allies abroad, and undermine his tax and regulatory reforms. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7% on the news, as investors absorbed the self-inflicted folly.
So: Make America Poor Again? Just wilful economic destruction simply in order to ... what? Feed one ignorant ego?

UPDATE:
Cartoonist Bruce McKinnon has an even simpler explainer ...




5 comments:

Gav 85 said...

It has been signaled that the objective is not primarily economic, so in understanding the motive it is not logical to judge the proposal purely on an economic basis. The identified purpose to force Canada and Mexico to cooperate more effectively in border control particularly around illegal migration, drug and weapons smuggling, could have societal benefits that potentially outweigh economic pain in the interim period. What I haven't seen, though it may well have been set out, is a clear set of criteria that Canada and Mexico need to meet to have the tariffs removed (I assume China would have different criteria not being a neighboring Country).

Peter Cresswell said...

There is no clear criteria because there is no clear objective. (One threat among many is for Canada to join as a 51st state, or else!)
And as the 'Chick Wars' demonstrate, once enacted, these things have a habit of sticking around, regardless of their destruction.

MarkT said...

I think Trump’s attitude to tariffs can be easily explained by a fundamental belief on his part that a market transaction involves the seller getting one over on the buyer. That’s what a lot of business dealings over his life have been based on, so he projects that. Despite that simple and plausible explanation, we still have scores of useful idiots who are so desperate for an anti-woke hero they’ll make up all sorts of convoluted and implausible explanations trying to excuse or justify it.

Anonymous said...

Credit where credits due, looks like Trump may be getting some action out of Mexico. Having said that I suppose in terms of benefits we wait and see whether the Mexican Army can sustain pressure on the cartels. It is a smart move to respond quickly to the concessions by Mexico with tariff suspension, puts more pressure on Canada and Trudeau.

Gav 85 said...

Credit where credits due, looks like Trump may be getting some action out of Mexico. Having said that I suppose in terms of benefits we wait and see whether the Mexican Army can sustain pressure on the cartels. It is a smart move to respond quickly to the concessions by Mexico with tariff suspension, puts more pressure on Canada and Trudeau.