Friday, 29 October 2021

"Surging [price] inflation, skyrocketing energy prices, production bottlenecks, shortages – economic orthodoxy has just run smack into a wall of reality called 'supply'."


"Surging [price] inflation, skyrocketing energy prices, production bottlenecks, shortages, plumbers who won’t return your calls – economic orthodoxy has just run smack into a wall of reality called 'supply.'
    "Demand matters too, of course. If people wanted to buy half as much as they do, today’s bottlenecks and shortages would not be happening. But the US Federal Reserve and Treasury have printed trillions of new dollars and sent cheques to just about every American, [so monetary demand is way up too]. Inflation should not have been terribly hard to foresee; and yet it has caught the Fed completely by surprise.
    "The Fed’s excuse is that the supply shocks are transient symptoms of pent-up demand. But the Fed’s job is – or at least [is said to be] – to calibrate how much supply the economy can offer, and then adjust demand to that level and no more. Being surprised by a supply issue is like the Army being surprised by an invasion."
          ~ John Cochrane on 'Supply'

NB: Interpolations are my own, PC.
Some Relevant Definitions:
Price Inflation - rising prices across an economy, e.g. most recently seen in asset-price inflation; generally caused by ...
Monetary Inflation - expansion of the money supply beyond the productive capacity of an economy; often the result of low interest rates (a swift mechanism for transferring wealth from savers to spenders; see Cantillon Effect, ZIRP)
Demand - desire backed with wherewithal 
Federal Reserve - the supplier of general wherewithal to those who would otherwise have only desire

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