Wednesday, 10 May 2023

"...it cuts across the official narrative that the extreme weather of the past few months is all due to climate change"


Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruption 
Ash & Lapilli' - YouTube] Jim Garvin, chief scientist at NASA's Goddard Space 
Flight Center, said the eruption of the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano on 
January 15, 2022 released "hundreds of times the equivalent mechanical energy of the 
Hiroshima nuclear explosion." The eruption near Tonga sent volcanic material surging as high
as 
40 kilometres into the atmosphere and generated tsunami waves up to 15 metres high.

"For months the country has felt as if it’s under a state of siege – not from a hostile foreign power, but from extreme weather. 
    "This week, the north of the country has been pummelled again by torrential rain, gale-force winds and high seas. RNZ reported this morning that more heavy rain warnings had been issued for the west coast of the North Island and the top of the South.
    "But please, whatever you do, don’t mention Hunga Tonga....
    "Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai is the underwater volcano that erupted near Tonga in January last year.... the most powerful eruption so far this century. 
    "According to NIWA, it was the biggest atmospheric explosion recorded in more than 100 years, measuring nearly 6 on the volcanic explosivity index – roughly equivalent to that of Krakatoa. The eruption created a volcanic plume that reached 58km into the mesosphere. 
    "An article in the scientific journal 'Earth and Environment' – one of many devoted to the event – noted that major volcanic eruptions are well-known drivers of climate change and said the magnitude of the Hunga Tonga explosion ranked it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era. Researchers calculated that it resulted in a 13% increase in global stratospheric water mass and a fivefold increase in stratospheric aerosol load – the highest in three decades. 
    "One study estimated the amount of water displaced as 58,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools, or about 10 percent of the entire water content of the stratosphere... 'Earth and Environment' said the eruption had “potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate.” 
    "Similarly, 'Atmosphere' magazine devoted a special issue to the eruption, calling it an epic event that would have a continuing effect on the climate, both locally (that probably includes us) and globally. 
It seems reasonable to conclude that an eruption of that scale might at the very least be a factor in the freakish weather patterns of the past few months.
    "Yet I can’t help suspecting that the eruption of Hunga Tonga is the climate event none of the New Zealand experts want to talk about, possibly because it cuts across the official narrative that the extreme weather of the past few months is all due to climate change."
~ Karl du Fresne, from his post 'Are we allowed to suggest that Hunga Tonga is the cause of the weather mayhem?' [hat tip KiwiWit]

2 comments:

Tom Hunter said...

Well as I said a few months ago, NIWA should hire this guy:

Rob Sharpe that is, a Meteorologist working for Sky News Australia.

I say that because almost alone among his breed he made a forecast in October 2022 for lots of rain and flooding in Australia this summer, based on a non-weather event in early 2022.


The key reasons he gave for his prediction:

The water vapour from the volcano cooled the SH stratosphere
=> Which pulled the Polar vortex, including the Southern Annular Mode (SAM – which is one of Australia’s weather drivers) closer to Antarctica
=> The lack of those Westerly SAM winds allowed warm, wet tropical air to push further south across Aussie, dumping vastly more rain than normal, and causing floods.

Science. Ya gotta love it. Maybe Luxon will read about it some day.

Tom Hunter said...

Meanwhile NIWA forecast the following for our summer:
“Everywhere except Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa are likely to see less rainfall than normal because of periods of excessive humidity and hot temperatures.”

TBF they're keying off climate models rather than meteorology.