Thursday 11 February 2021

" ... the effects of *unanticipated* monetary shocks ... "


"[D]ecades of macroeconomic research suggests that ... unexpected changes in monetary policy have vastly different effects from expected changes in monetary policy. For instance, an unanticipated easing of monetary policy will often boost asset prices, while an anticipated expansionary policy will often reduce asset prices, as during the 1970s....
    "Thus unexpected monetary stimulus often creates a temporary boom, boosting asset prices, while a permanent increase in inflation raises the effective tax rate on real capital income, thus depressing real capital prices."
~ Scott Sumner, from his post 'What is this "monetary policy" that you refer to?' [emphasis added]
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