"We are witnessing a very sad moment in American history." [updated with a FACTCHECK]

 

I confess that I never thought I'd be posting a video here by Bernie Sanders.

But it is the right time.

He captures the gravity, and the tragedy, of an American president dictating verbatim Russian propaganda lines to a willing American audience, an abject capitulation to dictatorial force, dismissing with a wave a Western Alliance that has lasted eighty years—and outraging folk as diverse as Bernie in Vermont, Emanuel Macron in Paris, and even the illiberal Peter Dutton in Canberra. 

It is indeed a very sad moment in American history.

There is literally nothing in Trump's recapitulation of Russian propaganda in any way based on reality.

"Trump Blames the Victim," says National Review, accurately. National Review! 'The American Betrayal of Ukraine' is its headline.

[S]o far in his second term, regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump has offered to Vladimir Putin that Ukraine will not retake all its annexed and occupied sovereign territory, that Ukraine will not join NATO, that there will be no U.S. troops on Ukrainian soil after the war, and that the U.S. will lift sanctionson Russia. And Trump might even throw in a withdrawal of the extra 20,000 U.S. troops that Joe Biden sent to NATO’s eastern flank after the invasion of Ukraine.
And in exchange, Putin offered . . . well, nothing, really. ... 

So much for the "art of the deal," huh.

"Peace" talks? These are talks to see how quickly Putin can be given all he asks for on a plate. 

    Russia has killed more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians, and more than 6 million Ukrainian citizens live under the brutal hand of occupying Russian forces, and our government is talking about [terms of surrender and] 'historic economic and investment opportunities' with them?
    What exactly does Russia have to offer us that we want so badly?

Who the hell knows. But this is Trump sending his Secretary of State to "impose terms of surrender on a sovereign nation that committed the crime—in his eyes now—of refusing to allow Russia to take it over." This, above and below, by the way, is written by a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan.

Trump literally blamed [Zelenskyy] and the country he leads for the war itself:“Today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it—three years. You should have never been there. You should have never started it. You should have made a deal.”
    You should never have started it. What madness, what cravenness, what repulsive factitiousness, is this?

"Started it"? Zelenskyy wasn't even within a sniff of his presidency when Putin invaded for the first time, in 2014. And the second invasion, in 2022, all he had time to start was firm resistance to Putin's bid for lebensraum.

As Volodomyr Zelenskyy responded, as diplomatically as he knew how, "Trump is living in a disinformation bubble."

[Trump's] claim is effectively that Zelenskyy is illegitimate; according to Trump, Zelenskyy has a 4 percent approval rating. That’s a near-psychotic lie. The last poll, for whatever a poll in the middle of a war is worth, had the Ukrainian leader at 52 percent.

That's a better rating than Trump's, for what it's worth.

Trump insists Zelenskyy holds elections, even as it struggles under the martial law imposed since Putin's second invasion. However, 

the Ukrainian constitution literally creates an election exception under conditions of martial law; not only are elections not to be held under its terms, but once martial law is lifted, there is to be no election for six months. As the scholar Elena Davlikanova explains, “Several laws would need to be changed in order for presidential elections to be held, which raises its own problems. Even if a legal solution could be found, security, financial, and organisational obstacles to holding free, fair, and representative elections are far more serious.”

It is not for Trump to decide whether Ukraine continues to defend its territory and its sovereignty. He is, of course, within his mandate as president to cut off aid, and thereby make the war sputter out—in order to make the Ukrainians suffer for their disobedience in refusing to walk quietly to the gallows while thanking him as they are hanged in the worldwide public square.

Down here, Oliver Hartwich weighs in on this historic shift in world affairs. 'The Day the West Died' is how he titles his piece.

Predictable though these developments were, they are still shocking. Not since the end of World War II has there been such a dramatic shift in the global security architecture. And rarely has a great power abandoned its allies with such devastating consequences.
    If you are not sure just how dramatic the events of the last week are, think about them this way. When World War II was coming to an end, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin met at Yalta to plan post-war Europe. But they did not invite Hitler to these discussions.
    Now, as the Ukraine War appears to be ending, it is the aggressor (Putin) and a sympathetic US President planning Ukraine’s future.
    Meanwhile, Ukraine and America’s European allies are effectively excluded from the talks.
    As Estonia’s former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now EU foreign policy chief, put it, “Why are we giving Russia everything they want even before negotiations have started?” ...

    As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt observed on X, “It’s certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started. Not even Chamberlain went that low in 1938.”

If Europeans had fronted up when they needed to—as a friend pointed out, if NATO were even barely competent, "this shouldn't matter. It'd be the same as Luxembourg negotiating with Russia on Ukraine's behalf." But they've made it matter by sitting on their hands when it mattered, and now it matters that an American president is hearing siren songs from a saurian despot.

Historian Niall Ferguson summarises, in firing back at a raving J.D. Vance:

I simply cannot understand the logic of beginning a negotiation this difficult by conceding so many crucial points to Russia. 

    As I understand it, before negotiations have even begun, NATO membership for Ukraine has been taken off the table and the loss of 20% of its territory has in effect been conceded. Correct me if I am wrong. 

    I have read also (though it may not be true) that “American officials are suggesting a different sort of peacekeeping force, including non-European countries such as Brazil or China, that would sit along an eventual ceasefire line as a sort of buffer.” China? Seriously? 

    On Wednesday, President Trump accused Ukraine of having “started it,” meaning the war. He also cast doubt on the legitimacy of President Zelensky’s government. 

    It is not “moralistic garbage” but a hard and realistic lesson of history that wars are easy to start and hard to end. As for “historical illiteracy,” here are some facts. 

    It took 1 year, 10 months, 25 days for Woodrow Wilson to negotiate an end to World War I (it helped that the Allies won); 2 years, 18 days to negotiate an end to the Korean War; 3 years, 5 months, 24 days to negotiate an end to the Vietnam War; and 5 years, 5 months, 1 day to negotiate peace between Israel and Egypt. 

    I earnestly hope that the Trump administration can negotiate an end to this war. 

    But if we end up with a peace that dooms Ukraine first to partition and then to some future invasion, it will be a sorry outcome.

A line has been drawn here. A line Bernie is not alone in recognising. Writing on The Origins of Totalitarianism, Hannah Arendt observed that

The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.” 

The distinction right now is between those who are still reality-based, and those willing to entertain the ravings of a fantasist. A fantasist in thrall to dictators, oligarchs, and his own headlines.

 

But one who holds, for another four years, the once-respected office of the US presidency.

FACTCHECK:

Claim: Ukraine started the war

Fact: Russia started the war, openly initiating in 2022 what they termed a special military operation after denying for weeks that they were preparing to invade. Russia also invaded Crimea by force in 2014 and organized the conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk starting that year to destabilize Ukraine, using Russian forces masquerading as local separatists.

Claim: Zelenskyy is unpopular with approval rating polls at 4%.

Fact: Zelenskyy approval rating polls are ~50%.

Claim: Zelenskyy is a dictator.

Fact: Putin is a dictator. Zelenskyy was elected in a free election and would win a second term depending on whether or not General Zaluzhnyi (popular former C-in-C, currently Ambassador to UK) runs. Pro-Russia politicians are extremely unpopular. Elections with much of four regions under Russian occupation would be difficult, and Ukraine's Constitution forbids elections during martial law, a status that Parliament must approve every 90 days (and has). Russia's last even partly free election was in 2000.

Claim: Russia is winning the war.

Fact: Russia has lost half of its military capability in the war, and proven that a supposed first rate military power cannot defeat a third rate power. Russia's economy is crippled by sanctions, brain drain, and 21% interest rates. They have suffered an estimated 500,000 battle casualties, naval decimation, and a recent embarrassing loss of its satellite state in Syria. The cards dealt to Trump in negotiating are actually quite strong.

Claim: U.S. has spent $350 billion on the war, half of which is missing.

Fact: U.S. government figures have Congress approving $183 billion for Ukraine and NATO partners assisting Ukraine, of which $86.7 billion has been spent. $58 billion of that was spent in the U.S. fulfilling arms orders, and $32 billion on direct budget support for Ukraine's government. A private estimate by the Kiel Institute adds indirect spending to total $124 billion to date. The $350 billion number is a 2022 World Bank estimate of the cost of rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure after the war. Zelenskyy's comment about missing money was about the U.S. not spending the full amount Congress has approved.

Claim: The U.S. has spent $200 billion more than Europe on aiding Ukraine.

Fact: Europe has spent more total aid, $140 billion to date. The U.S. has spent slightly more on military equipment ($67 billion vs $65 billion) but Europe has spent more on financial and humanitarian aid.

Claim: Ukrainian provinces have voted to join Russia.

Fact: The sham referendums - claiming 87% to 99% support for Russia - were hastily arranged with no secret ballots, involved armed men going door to door to collect ballots, multiple ballots cast by supporters, and documented reprisals against those who refused to cooperate. Many residents had also fled the Russian occupation of their regions. Prewar polling of Russian annexation of their region ranged from 1% (Kherson) to 13% (Luhansk).

Claim: The U.S. launched a coup in 2014 against Ukraine's government.

Fact: Russia attempted a coup against Ukraine's government in 2013-14, sending support to a pro-Russian President's attempt to end an agreement with the EU that Parliament had ratified, jail his opponents (deploying "Berkut" riot police against them), and curtail press freedom. Ukraine's Parliament voted 328 to 0 to remove the President, who fled to Russia. Polling showed overwhelming Ukrainian support for his removal and the country had a free election later in 2014 to select his replacement.

Claim: Ukraine could have made a deal.

Fact: Ukraine negotiated up until the full-scale invasion in 2022, and even after it began. Russia's pre-conditions were (and remain) annexation of Crimea and four Ukrainian regions including portions Russia does not currently occupy, NATO rejection of Ukrainian membership and withdrawal of NATO forces from eastern Europe, and the replacement of Ukraine's democracy with a pro-Russia government. Ukraine ended negotiations after the Bucha massacre.

Claim: Zelenskyy was asleep and refused to meet with Treasury Secretary Bessent last week and refused to agree to Ukrainian mineral wealth being sold to the U.S.

Fact: Zelenskyy and Bessent met (see photo). The mineral wealth deal - Zelenskyy's idea of encouraging post-war investment while showing tangible value for American aid - is continuing to be negotiated. The first draft did not contain security guarantees which Ukraine views as vital and was written as a joint venture between governments rather than a private investment arrangement.