Wednesday 23 August 2023

This is not normal




Source: Liabilities data for 1916–2023 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, statistical release H.4.1, Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks, via FRED; and M2 money supply data for 1959–2023 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, statistical release H.6, Money Stock Measures, via FRED. Note: The solid trend line (1) is a curve fit to the data between 1965 and 2003. The solid trend line (2) is a double exponential curve fit to the data after 2003. The two world wars are indicated by arrows pointing to the pink regions. Recessions are indicated by sepia-colored strips.

"The world since 1900 has experienced two major world-encompassing wars. Wars cost a lot of money, and countries—even if they were once on a gold standard—usually start printing massive amounts of money to finance their wars....
    "[Yet i]f we take the real value of the expansion of U.S. Federal Reserve liabilities between 1934 and 1963 due to World War II, and compare this to the total liabilities from 2008 to 2023, we find [this most recent period] to be 2.3 times larger at its peak than it was in World War II!"
~ John Hartnett. from his post 'Has World War II Already Begun?' [emphasis mine]

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