Tuesday 29 August 2023

It's election season, so be careful of "trendy economics"


"With the rise of social media (especially Twitter), it has becomes easier to observe changes in the zeitgeist. Over the past few years, I’ve seen the following trends:
  1. Claims that increases in the minimum wage do not have negative side effects.
  2. Claims that we don’t have to worry about big budget deficits when the interest rate is low.
  3. Claims that changes in the money supply don’t impact inflation.
  4. Claims that 'neoliberalism' no longer works, and that we need an industrial policy. 
"In each case, trendy pundits rejected long established economic principles. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. [See post for the various chickens' flight paths.] ...
    "To summarise, stay away from trendy economic fads. The eternal verities never change:
  1. Price controls are bad (whether on wages, prices rents or interest rates.)
  2. Large budget deficits are bad, even if interest rates are low at the time. 
  3. Persistent inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
  4. Free market economies do better than statist economies. Emulate Denmark, not Argentina."
~ Scott Sumner, from his post 'Avoid trendy economics'

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