The Nostradamus-like pronouncement made fifty years ago by American geophysicist MK Hubbert and religiously trotted out when oil prices rise is given short shrift in a report by oil analysts Cambridge Energy Research (founded by Daniel Yergin, who won a Pulitzer Prize for his 1991 oil industry history The Prize, and who famously noted, "This is the fifth time we've run out of oil since the 1880s"), which estimates "remaining global supply at 3.74 trillion barrels, compared with 1.2 trillion estimated by "peak oil" theorists... CERA finds that not only will world oil production not peak before 2030, but that the idea of a peak is itself "a dramatic but highly questionable image"."
"World oil production will not begin to fall for at least another 24 years, contrary to doomsday theories that supply is already in terminal decline, a prominent energy consulting group said Tuesday.Are you listening, Jeanette? As George Reisman has pointed out (and as we've discussed recently), resource use is a dynamic process, not a static one, with the ultimate resource being the mind applied to things that nature offers us. Making doomsday predictions on resource use without factoring in the role of the mind in resource production is itself doomed to failure.
"Cambridge Energy Research Associates said in a report that the world has some 3.74 trillion barrels of oil left -- enough to last 122 years at current consumption rates and triple the amount estimated by 'peak oil' theorists...
“'Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies,' said Peter Jackson, director of oil industry activity for Cambridge, a Massachusetts-based consultant to the oil, natural gas and electric power industries.
"They said the peak in global daily oil production will not come before 2030 and will be followed not by a steep decline, but rather by an 'undulating plateau' of ups and downs in output before a gradual dropoff, according to the report.
"Jackson said the main flaw in 'peak oil' theory is that it fails to account for exploration, technology, rising estimates of the size of existing fields and geopolitical shifts...
NB: You can see a short video of author and Canbridge Energy Research founder Daniel Yergin discussing the report at the MSNBC site. The clip is at the right of the page. "The theory [of Peak Oil] is very fashionable ... but it completely discounts technology, which constantly expands our horizons..." he says.
LINKS: CERA says peak oil theory faulty - Energy Bulletin
World oil supply still plentiful, study shows - MSNBC
Environmentalism refuted - George Reisman, Mises Institute
More sustainability - Not PC (October, 2006)
Review of Andrew Bernstein's Capitalist Manifesto - Le Quebecois Libre
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