"The 'AI will code for us' idea always skips over the 90% of the job that isn't coding."The real work is translating a vague business need into a precise, testable system. It's architecting something that won't fall over in 6 months. It's debugging a problem that only appears under a specific, bizarre set of conditions.
"Even with a perfect code generator, you still need someone who understands the problem deeply enough to tell it what to build. That part isn't getting automated."~ Selim Erünkut commenting on the alleged obsolescence of coding [Emphasis mine.]
Thursday, 19 February 2026
It's (still) all about the entrepreneur
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
This is interesting. It is a common point of view. I fear that it is analogous to the God of the Gaps argument theists sometimes deploy in arguments with their atheist friends.
The latest publicly released ChatGPT version (5.3) is much more impressive than anything the public has been allowed to see and use previously and don't forget there are far more powerful AI in research and in bespoke packages which are not visible to the public yet. Even so, 5.3 is novel as AI was deployed to code an AI software for itself. What is really interesting about it is that 5.3 was then allowed to independently iteratively code and proof test itself. Think on that and what the consequences are going to be.
AI will develop and improve at an accelerating pace from here on. What was impressive six months ago is already backward in comparison to what was released last week. In a year things will have moved radically ahead. The pace of development is accelerating exponentially.
Now the bad. It does mean the end of a lot of jobs. Machine generated coding will dominate. Machine initiated coding will become dominant as well. Administrative jobs are in jeopardy (if you work in an office or a cubical you are about to be replaced sooner rather than later). Accounting is gone. Lawering is gone. Judges are done. Doctors (GPs mainly) are in dire trouble, mostly gone, so too radiologists. Too bad for many (the majority) designers, architects, engineers, managers, patent attorneys, journalists, script writers for movies and TV, actors, graphic and commercial artists, advertising copy writers and so on- most of these will be gone. Done and dusted and finished with. Surely, we hope, there will be room for a few brave entrepreneurs at the top of the game. Perhaps there will be. The question is how will they get there? The ladder of experience that was once available for talented and ambitious people to climb won't be available any more. Even when it was, only a minority attempted to climb it and only a minority of them were successful. This is a tiny minority of the population. What of the rest?
Are any of you watching the markets? If you have been you'll notice the trillions that have been pumped into what looks like the largest bubble ever. Surely everyone sees that it is a bubble seeking only a tiny needle to burst it? Then why have such fortunes been directed toward it? Why the rush to invest? The reason is that after looming bust (bubble bursting and collapsing) the survivor, whomever remains, will dominate this sector. It's a large bet they are placing (immense), but well worth the risk for the survivor, the winner. They will dominate post-bubble.
The internet didn't cease after the dotcom/tech-bubble burst. Instead it grew and a select few companies became very wealthy and extremely powerful. Expect to see something similar. The survivors win all. The stakes are very high. So, where is your super invested? It matters.
Summing up. The rise of AI brings to society an inflexion point after which nothing will be as it was. This time around it is primarily the white collars who are to suffer the cost of changes. Many will not make it. Their lives, relatively comfortable until now, completely altered. Status, income, standard of living, meaning, progression, comfort, satisfaction, family relations, identity, all of it completely altered. For most it's to be a devastation. For most there will not be a recovery. This human cost is going to be vast and on scale.
What strategy do you have in place to survive changes? How will you protect you children so they can thrive? What are you doing?
Henry J
Post a Comment