"Trump's policy, unveiled yesterday afternoon, is called a 'reciprocal tariff plan,' which is a bit like calling a hammer a 'reciprocal pillow'."

"There’s a fundamental problem with Donald Trump’s new trade policy: it fails a test that actual 5th graders can pass. I know this because I tried explaining his 'Liberation Day' trade plan to one last night. Here’s how that conversation went:
“Imagine you want to buy a toy at a store which costs $50. You pay for the toy and walk away with it. The President looks at that transaction and says ‘wait, you paid the store $50 and the store paid you nothing, therefore the store is stealing from you. To 'fix' this, I’m going to tax the store $25. From now on that same toy costs $75.”
"The 5th grader looked at me like I was crazy. 'Whaaaaaaat? None of that makes sense. If I pay for something, it’s not stealing. And taxing the store seems stupid, and then everything is more expensive. Why would anyone do that? That can’t be how it works.'
"This is the core problem with Trump’s 'Liberation Day' trade policy: it fundamentally misunderstands what trade deficits are. And if you think that’s bad, just wait until we get to the part where this policy declares economic war on penguins and our own military base. ...
"The policy, unveiled yesterday afternoon, is called a 'reciprocal tariff plan,' which is a bit like calling a hammer a 'reciprocal pillow.' The premise is that since other countries have high tariffs on us (they don’t), we should have high tariffs on them (we shouldn’t). But that’s not even the weird part.
"At the heart of this policy is a chart. Not just any chart, but what might be the most creative work of economic fiction since, well, Donald Trump launched his memecoin. Trump proudly displayed these numbers at a White House event, explaining that they showed the tariffs other countries impose on the US. He emphasized repeatedly that the US was being more than 'fair' because our reciprocal tariffs would be less than what other countries were charging us.
"There was just one small problem: none of the numbers were real tariff rates. Not even close.
"At first, observers assumed the administration was simply inventing numbers, which would have been bad enough. But the reality turned out to be far more stupid. ...

"All of this glosses over the fact that 'reciprocal tariffs' are not reciprocal at all. Trump’s team is making up fake tariff numbers for foreign countries based not on anything having to do with tariffs, but on trade deficits, which is just an accounting of inflows vs. outflows between two countries. It’s only reciprocal because the Trump team faked the numbers.
"On top of that, Trump can only impose tariffs (normally a power of Congress) based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the National Emergencies Act. Both laws require there to be an actual 'emergency.' The only emergency here is that nobody in the administration understands what trade deficits are....
"So to sum up where we are:The administration invented an economic emergency- To justify a policy based on made-up numbers
- Generated by an AI formula that came with explicit warnings not to use it
- Which they’re now using to launch trade wars
- And presumably Santa’s Workshop (someone check for a North Pole entry)
"And while the penguins and military base make for amusing examples of this policy’s incompetence, the real damage will come from applying this same backwards logic to basically all of our actual trading partners — countries whose goods and services make American lives better and whose economic relationships we’ve spent decades building. And who, historically, welcomed back American goods and services as well. All of that is now at risk because someone couldn’t be bothered to learn what a trade deficit actually is. And the American electorate deciding that’s who we wanted to govern the country.
"When your trade policy is so fundamentally misguided that you’re declaring economic war on flightless birds and your own armed forces, perhaps it’s time to admit that the 5th grader from the beginning of this story wasn’t just smarter than the administration — they were dramatically overqualified for Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers."
~ Mike Masnick from his article 'Trump Declares A Trade War On Uninhabited Islands, US Military, And Economic Logic'






4 comments:
< href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/do-not-blame-trade-decline-manufacturing-jobs">Manufacturing: Trade
The link above from Center for Strategic & International Studies is a rather good backgrounder to the discussion on tarrifs. Has a conclusion that "The import problem is that anti-trader perspectives have focused on the several million jobs lost by manufacturing firms. As shown above, this is a small number, and the involuntary separations of American-based companies dwarf the negative effect of trade. The bottom line is that almost the entire decline from 32 percent of the labor force in 1955 to 8 percent in 2019 was not caused by imports but by higher productivity." Peak USA manufacturing employment was in the 1960s
“It is the theory of the Protectionist that imports are an evil. He thinks that if you shut out the foreign imported manufactured goods you will make these goods yourselves, in addition to the goods which you make now, including those goods which we make to exchange for the foreign goods that come in. If a man can believe that he can believe anything. [Laughter.] We Free-traders say it is not true. To think you can make a man richer by putting on a tax is like a man thinking that he can stand in a bucket and lift himself up by the handle. [Laughter and cheers.]”
From Winston Churchill’s speech as a member of the Free Trade League 1904. www.winstonchurcill.org
An appropriate post to put a full retraction of my former support for The Idiot in the Whitehouse through comments on your blog over last months: my previous support was giving him benefit of the doubt, until on Liberation Day I was liberated from a chunk of my net worth (and counting) via that lunatic trade balance calculation Trump is using, and New Zealand like many countries recklessly put into a parlous position trade wise (not with US, but with our ag produce to China when Xi devalues Yuan), plus the Pacific as a relatively safe place given Trump's main push is to destabilise China and hence the region, over this lunatic weekend. (Share advice: don't buy the likely Black Monday coming, there are many more legs to go down).
I've been posting my always resident anger all weekend on Twitter: perhaps best summed up in broad strokes by my last pinned post:
'What happened to the American Constitution restraining abuse of power and the state? Apparently the republic is as flawed as our liberal democracies.
Here’s why free markets are non-existence in the main part, for some time, but it appears to be capitulation now. And here’s the end of a once great American empire. My point: free markets are free lives.
We all wait to read the tea leaves of central bank announcements for ‘market’ signals. Central banks are not a free market, they are a distortion of free markets.
And now a single man in the Whitehouse has, we find, the power of tyranny, and can turn markets up and down by 40% on a sentence, can destroy the global trading system and put the world into recession harming billions of lives between golf rounds over a single weekend.
WTF.
I think I have to go back to my first principles for the foundations of free lives, and right now America is in too many ways the opposite of those.'
@Peter S.: Worth repeating: "The bottom line is that almost the entire decline from 32 percent of the [manufacturing] labor force in 1955 to 8 percent in 2019 was not caused by imports but by higher productivity." Conversely, reversing such a transition, if it were possible, condemns a large part of the labour force to change their employment from a comfortable service job to an uncomfortable and ill-paid factory job.
@Rex: Nice quote, Rex. From when Winston had some grasp of economics.
@Mark: Great that you've (belatedly) seen the light. A shame it took incipient economic destruction for it to happen.
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