"In order to accept the premise that Russia could have vetoed former Soviet or Eastern bloc states from ever choosing to enter into certain international alliances, it is first necessary to deny those states full sovereignty.... It is not often acknowledged that entertaining this Russian talking point capitulates to the sphere-of-influence politics of the Cold War...
"The expansion of NATO since the end of the Cold War is often discussed solely as a US policy decision. But this ignores the goals and interests of the small countries, whose politicians made the case for NATO membership much more forcefully than anyone in Washington, and often in the teeth of American doubts and objections....
"It had often been the fate of the small nations of Europe to be dominated by the larger ones.... An important lesson of the 20th century was that, while appeasement encouraged aggressors, strength deterred them. And it had been the strength of the United States which had changed the course of European history.... Still, Europeans have often struggled to convince Americans that it is in their interests to support freedom on the European continent. ...
"Far from being a project of US imperialism, NATO expansion has been a process driven by the small and vulnerable countries, which are also the most fundamentally anti-imperialist ones, since their continued existence is predicated upon their ability to deter imperialist neighbours. While many of the threatening imperialisms of the European past have happily vanished, the Russian one maintains its claims.... It is for this reason that a Ukrainian victory—in teaching the Russians where their borders lie—could end the Russian imperial story for good, and hasten the day when a civilisation at ease with itself can live in harmony beside Europe."~ Oscar Clarke, from his post 'When Havel Met Biden'
Wednesday 13 September 2023
"Far from being a project of US imperialism, NATO expansion has been a process driven by the small and vulnerable countries, which are also the most fundamentally anti-imperialist ones"
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5 comments:
Nonsense. This is a false narrative. Don't fall for it.
NATO is doomed anyway. Soon enough, countries will be scrambling for the exit. Watch and see.
Jay
Thanks for that reasoned analysis (not).
Mark
Yes, it is tough to admit reality sometimes, especially when a dear and comfortable narrative turns out to be false.
Observe that Ukraine is running out of soldiers. NATO is running out of munitions to send. None of the Western wonder weapons were the game changers that they were boasted to be (indeed they have demonstrated over-complexity, fragility, have not performed so well and are extremely expensive). The Ukrainian counter-offensive (with NATO training, planning, C4ISR and leadership) has failed to achieve its objectives even after months and months (AFU are yet to make it across the security zone despite awful losses of men and material). Most shocking, the casualty rate disfavours the AFU by an order of magnitude.
Meanwhile, the bulk of the EU is in a swift economic (and societal) collapse. Germany is de-industrialising. The Bundesbank is needs a recapitalisation (in March alone it suffered Eu 1 billion in bond losses as interest rates climb- insolvency looms). The ECB is not in a position to assist, as it wrestles with its own problems (attempting to control bond yields and support the Eu simultaneously- can't do both indefinitely). The Eu is down from settling 40% of international trade to 14%. The USA is wrestling its own economic difficulties and is suffering from accelerating social problems. The petrodollar is coming to an end as Saudi Arabia starts accepting other currencies for its oil exports. Simultaneously, the price of RF oil, such as Sokol and ESPO, have well exceeded the G7 "price cap", likewise Urals grade. Do not overlook the fact that the City of London has lost control over US monetary policy. Hear the sucking sound as USD liquidity outside the US collapses. Interest rates; higher for longer.
contd
----2nd part
Over at the RF things are on a different track. Even the IMF reports the RF economy is growing, predicting 2.4% growth into 2024 (likely more). Notice the lack of effect Western sanctions, currency and financial manipulations have had on the RF economy yet they have devastated their own economies, especially in Europe. RF exports of energy, fertiliser, food and chemicals are in high demand and there are buyers for all of it. They export advanced machine tools, technology and manufactured goods, slowly displacing Western (esp. European) suppliers.
RF armed forces are growing in size and in capability. The vast bulk of it has not been committed to combat. Reserves are vast. The RF retains the capacity to wage industrial war. The West lost the ability to do this decades ago. Weapons stockpiles across the West are dangerously depleted already (for example, the UK has only got 40 operational main battle tanks presently and the recent parliamentary report on the RAF makes for dire reading, the Germans are not even as well off as that with 18 operational main battle tanks- they swap them around from battalion to battalion). The rate of replacement is insufficient to continue to supply the AFU's needs (for example, annual production of shells from the EU and the USA combined is less than what Ukraine needs per month) let alone sufficient to enter and maintain direct hostilities with the RF for more than a strictly limited period. Understand that a direct intervention of US or Polish troops against the Russian Federation is expected to result in 15,000 NATO casualties during the first fortnight. Absolutely horrific to contemplate. Unimaginably horrible. Yet the longer the SMO runs, the worse it is for NATO and the economies of the West, especially the EU. RF leadership predicted a decade of instability and hostility as new international structures and relationships are erected to replace the current order. If they are correct we have over eight years yet to endure. They are slow walking in Ukraine for a reason. For them there is no hurry.
contd
last part----
Some 80% of the World population is in countries which are members or are seeking to become members of BRICS+. China is an ally to RF. Now even NorK is making deals with RF. Egypt and the Suez are BRICS. Western control and influence are waning. Did you notice the failure to get a joint communique out of the G20 to condemn the RF? Notice also the Western powers are being ejected from the Sahel and Africa in general. This is a devastating development for France in particular. During their presidencies both Mitterrand and Chirac stated that without control of African resources France was doomed. Well, it appears that it is and with that goes the French banking system. That all has serious knock-on effects for the rest of the EU and the Eu besides.
NATO expansion was wrong. It was known to be the wrong policy at the time it was undertaken but they went ahead anyway. The consequence is the present woeful situation.
Once reality intrudes on the falsity of self-serving virtue-signaling narratives uncomfortable conclusions must be faced. When the people in Europe realise what has been done to them their politics will change radically. Exit from the present arrangements will be sought. Will what is erected be an improvement over what they have been subject to or will it be much worse? How much suffering is there yet to come?
Jay
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