Monday, 5 December 2016

PM to be ex-PM sooner rather than later

 

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PM Key has announced that by this time next week he will be ex-PM Key, resigning to spend more time with his family.

In this case, that much-overused political alibi is probably true.

For a PM who’s been there nearly three terms, you would think he would leave a legacy. But in his own estimation, the “achievements” he highlighted were “the overhaul of justice agencies,” “trade liberalisation,” “advanced race relations” and “and real momentum in the Treaty settlement programme.”:

This is not great work. He calls these “reforms” and says they are “far reaching.” In any other language you would call it all “a wasted opportunity.” That’s at best; at worst, they are all destructive of the liberty that remains..

Yes, he remained extraordinarily popular with NZers – which, in many ways was a good thing (NZers taking for what he seemed to be but wasn’t: as what they think of as representing capitalism). But instead of using that political capital to roll back the state, nothing was achieved at all in that direction and much instead the other way.

After eight years of John Key, the country’s policy settings looks little different than they would have under Labour. That is his real legacy as leader.

Newstalk ZB political editor Barry Soper said attention will now be turned to who will take over.
    "Like Helen Clark, there's no natural successor in line, so this is indeed a big announcement from the Prime Minister, and totally unexpected."

Unexpected?  Easy to say in hindsight (yeah, isn’t hindsight great), but if you were to map out the ideal time for a PM to retire if they didn’t plan on a complete fourth term (as he’d previously signalled), then a year out from an election would be a good time to give a successor time to bed in for the campaign, with a holiday period upcoming to give them some space free of media pressure. So in hindsight, early-December 2016 looks ideal.

No natural successor in line? There rarely is, is there.

Joyce and English will fancy themselves, undoubtedly, but the former has less charisma than a telephone pole, and no caucus would surely want a repeat performance from Mr 22%.

Collins too would rate her chances, but I doubt any electorate would agree.

Perhaps Paula Bennett would be the one with most credentials and the least likely to scare the horses. If I were placing a bet, that’s where my money would go. But not any sentiment. 

But the choices aren’t really thick on the ground, if the last eight years look uninspiring for liberty-lovers then, none of those four are likely to correct things.

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12 comments:

  1. He crawled disgustingly to part-Maoris. He pushed apartheid by failing to abolish the part-Maori roll, and in other ways. He continued making so-called "treaty settlements". He's been a colossal disaster of an apartheid-pushing race-separatist.

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    1. It's pretty sad that people with your view expressed above still exist in New Zealand, Barry. Hopefully there's not many of them.

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  2. Mark Hubbard is absolutely correct. Bill English is the second worst finance minister we've had - his predecessor being the worst - and now he's odds on to become PM.
    Good times.

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    1. Michael Cullen as worst finance minister? He was not good, but Rob takes a helluva lot of beating. The most controlled developed economy outside of Soviet-era eastern Europe is on another level to Cullen and English.

      However, English was in the traditional National style - status quo, throw money at some pet vanity projects and don't rock the boat, but don't do anything radical to address underlying weaknesses in existing structures.

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    2. Muldoon's stuff was easy to shake off with some applied common sense.
      Cullen doubled the size of the public service and on both occasions of his exit had people joining the dole queue at the rate of 100 a day.
      English was unaware he had to take an axe to the parasites because he is, frankly, one of them.

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  3. The REAL Reason Key has resigned :
    is because he knows that the NZ economic cRASH is coming and coming fast
    withe the EURO and EU now is freewill and the return to national currencies , we will see a massive rise in the USD and stock market . The Euro will obviously crash and what will be left is a Germany with massive debts and massive civil unrest , which will turn Alt Right .
    The Yen will plummet massively as well

    As far as NZ goes, Key knows how devastating this is ALL going to be on the NZ economy (mark my words , as I know the inside players).
    The NZCB and ALL the large NZ/Aussie banks (since there is only one NZ owned bank left (Taranaki) are in a hole that they cannot escape with MASSIVE carry trades with Low Interest US banks and the Fed .
    The NZCB and ALL NZ banks will be forced to raise interest rates at least 2-3 basis points higher than the carry trades they are stuck in.The NZCB and big banks hedge funds et al, can and will try to unwind the carry trade , but this will accelerate the problem .
    NZ is a massive economic box canyon , with vey high Over the counter rates coming FAST and bonds with massive rates (that the NZ taxes cannot pay ) and no hedge fund or other nation will bond swap with (unless their are massive tax increases ) and that is political suicide.
    Real Estate in NZ will see the biggest CRASH with Bank BAIL INS that will cause dominos crashes across the economy.

    Because kiwis are illiterate when it comes to economic and an array of issues , the propaganda will blame TRUMP for the dominos effect (or whatever crap that kiwis will swallow)

    BUT this will bring the Global TREND to NZ , with the rise to POWER of the NZ First part and other alt right parties,

    Mark my words , NZ is in Large trouble and John Key who worked for the NY Fed for ten years close with Summers knows ALL about what is coming Fast for kiwis.
    Enjoy your summer, for a VERY COLD winter is Coming for Kiwis and it is going to settle in for a long time .

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    1. You are obviously near illiterate yourself - your rant is full of incorrect grammar, terrible spelling, incoherent sentence structure, incorrect use of capital letters- I could go on. As an 'inside player of the New Zealand Economy' I assume that 'inside player' its restricted to cleaning the toilets.

      IvanK

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  4. If you cannot see that Germany/Austria, NZ/Aussie and China are ALL on the brink of a collapse because of central planning, exactly as a communist state, then you will continue to look for conspiracies rather than understanding that the system, which is crumbling before our eyes, cannot be manipulated. This is why BREXIT, Trump, and now Hollande in France are stepping out. The cycle has changed and all of this is beyond government or banks to control the outcome. They are not intentionally doing this, for they cannot even understand human behavior no less manipulate it.
    The dollar is on the rise after the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. Investors are betting on an economic boom in the U.S. and rising U.S. interest rates that will attract even more capital to the dollar. This also weighs very heavily on emerging market currencies and commodities prices in dollars. As the dollar rises, those commodities will decline unless there is a real shortage in supply that dips below demand. It is all coming together and you better understand the trend or you will not survive. Indeed, all roads lead to the dollar. Mark my Words, I know exactly what is unfolding and what the plans are, Taiwan , India and an indonesian-sentric pro USA Nationalism is the future. NZ chose its path to follow China and will pay Dearly .Kiwis whom are mostly brainwashed with Neoliberal Marxist propaganda , did NOT show their allegiance to the United States and a very Cod and long winter is ahead for all of the kiwi scum , whom deserve what is coming. Key has bailed very quickly and there is a lot more in revelations coming with Crime,the Clinton foundation , Obama with John Key and his inner circle and the Lolita express

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  5. Corruption
    ,Free Movement

    We tend to assume that the freedom of movement is confined solely to migration and travel. There are four aspects to the freedom of movement, and migration or travel is only one. I warned that the Schengen Agreement would come to an end and the European refugee crisis has enabled that decline.
    There are four facets to the freedom of movement, which people far too often do not look at or understand their vital role in furthering the development of civilization. What truly made Rome a great enduring Empire was more than just might. Roman imperial history cannot ignore the freedom of movement in all four aspects: 1.) translation of texts, practices, and ideas; 2.) communication or the movement of written documents (i.e. today’s internet, phone calls, and texting); 3.) migration (i.e. officials, merchants, students, etc.); and 4.) the free movement of goods and services. The interrelationships among the four aspects of the freedom of movement are critical to the advancement of civilization.

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    1. If you're wondering why this comment is deleted, it is because it is customary to attribute quotes, and not to quote lengthy passages without both attribution and the permission of both host and author.
      And not, at this blog, to post anonymously. That grants you no favours.

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