Jonathan Alter at Newsweek online [hat tip Russell B] reminds us that no matter how much she and her supporters cheer her results in Texas and Ohio, and no matter how hard she works over the next few months (or even how many Rush Limbaugh supporters get out and vote for her) there is just no way Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination.
Forget the latest results, says Alter, "She could win 16 straight and still lose." It's all there in the maths and the Democrats' proportional representation system: even if Clinton wins 75-25 in all the remaining primaries, she still can't pull back Obama's lead in already pledged delegates.
Clinton aides say [this week's results] will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.
I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton... no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February.
So there it is -- all over bar the shouting, screaming and all too predictable tantrums. You wouldn't want to be sharing a breakfast table with her when she eventually works it out.
7 comments:
She doesn't need to lead the pledged delegate count though. All she needs to do is prevent Obama from winning which she achieves simply by staying in the race. Which means that for practical purposes the race is tied until the convention. Then the superdelegates come into play.
So it really comes down to who looks better at the end of August. If Clinton continues to slowly narrow the gap and if she continues to attack Obama successfully then she stands a good chance of winning. Six months is a long, long, time in politics and a small pledged delegate lead from winning places like Iowa in January won't count for much if he is looking shaky then.
Good riddance to that evil female and her disgusting husband.
It has certainly taken long enough, but I am pleased she has been denied the nomination...despite the posturing to come.
Good news - our boy will win a few more states soon.
The religious right is going ballistic "Obama displays a reckless commitment to play games with the future sexual formation of families and puts himself so firmly planted in the camp of anti-biblical views of truth, sex, and family that we have never seen its comparison in all years previous." - from Townhall I think.SOmeone in NZ Conservative comments said he was the anti christ.
Pull up a chair - this is going to be good.
As someone said, it's not the maths but the algebra that can see her through, ie, it's the shape of the wave of support she could generate as the Obama balloon deflates over the coming months.
JC
Each of these creatures is as bad as the other. Both are evil.
LGM
Read this :
http://field-negro.blogspot.com/2008/03/she-wont-go.html
It's too funny. Field is another lawyer - too many lawyers blog. Must have a lot of time on their hands.
It's not over, Hillary has a sense of entitlement, and super delegates will make the difference - as will Florida and Michigan which both went for Hillary.
A deal will be done, with Obama as number two - which he may be willing to do, and Hillary is desperate for him to do. The difference is Hillary will never play second fiddle, she didn't stick with Bill through his adventures to get 2nd prize.
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