Lots of climate change announcements...

At a climate change symposium in Helengrad today, Climate Change Minister David Parker told the audience that climate change is happening. "Climate change is happening now," said the excited minister, and then announced several measures to "reduce carbon dioxide emissions" including a "price-based measure across the economy." For this he expects to get headlines and adulation.

Greenpeace agreed that climate change is happening, declared that "everyone's talking about the need to make major reductions of greenhouse gases," and went on to castigate the minister for not doing enough to shackle industry. For this they expect to get headlines and a smattering of new and renewed donations for their staunchness.

Later this afternoon and as part of the same symposium, Nick Smith on behalf of the Blue Green Group of Wetness will agree with both that climate change is happening, and declare that his party agrees with Mr Parker in absolutely every way except the means by which industry is to be shackled. For this he hopes to get a job as Environment Minister in the next National cabinet.

Over the weekend the Blue Green Group of Wetness will be watching (avidly no doubt) Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth (about which, more below), which asserts without fear of contradiction that climate change is happening, that the last decade has had all the hottest years ever so it really must be happening, and that we have but a few short years to get our shit in order if we're to avert a real catastrophe. For this, the Blue Greens probably hope for an hour or two to nod off, while Al Gore without a doubt harbours hopes of piles of money and a chance for a go at being the former next President of the US twice.

All of these local groups have no doubt harked back the announcement earlier in the week by a smug twit from the Ministry of the Environment who declared that the "Earth is getting warmer faster, due largely to greenhouse gas emissions from human activity."

Meanwhile, in more sober climes, Professor Bob Carter points out in a paper released by the Climate Science Coalition [pdf] (and still unpublished in any NZ newspaper) that,

the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia [show] that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero.)

You can see the inconvenient truth for yourself in the graph below:

Global average temperatures since 1998 (Climate Research Unit, UK)

So if climate change is happening, as just "everyone" says it is, it doesn't seem to be happening in the real world. I wonder then just exactly where it is happening? If climate is happening, let alone "dangerous" and "catastrophic" global warming, the place to see that would be in the temperature records, right? And it'd be more than clear, right?

Oh, and speaking of inconvenient truths, the Competitive Enterprise Institute have produced a 120-page PDF 'Skeptic's Guide to An Inconveneient Truth.' If you're going to the Blue Greens conference this weekend and you do decide to watch it, you could print out a bunch of copies and either see how the Skeptic's Guide stacks up against the celluloid claims of the man who used to have presidential aspirations, or you could just use them to beat Nick Smith around the head.

Either way, they'd be well-used.

UPDATE: For those expressing reservations about the CRU graph above representing too short a period, Junk Science has compiled and put into graphic form a bunch of data sets for the entire period in which temperature records have been kept: Catastrophic warming? You decide. And do make sure you read all of Carter's piece, since he also addresses this point. From Junk Science, 'The Real Inconvenient Truth':

Who says it is warming catastrophically? Humans have only been trying to measure the temperature fairly consistently since about 1880, during which time we think the world may have warmed by about +0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C. As we've already pointed out, the estimate of warming is less than the error margin on our ability to take the Earth's temperature, generally given as 14 °C ± 0.7 °C for the average 1961-1990 while the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) suggest 13.9 °C for their average 1880-2004. We are pretty sure it was cold before the 1880 commencement of record and we would probably not handle the situation too well if such conditions returned but there has been no demonstrable catastrophic warming while people have been trying to measure the planet's temperature. If we have really been measuring a warming episode as we think we have, then setting new records for "hottest ever in recorded history" should happen just about every year -- although half a degree over a century is hardly something to write home about -- so there's really nothing exciting about scoring the highest number when looking at such a short history.

At risk of belaboring the point, the following data is from the merged land air and sea surface temperature data set (based on data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) of land temperatures and the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) of SST data). This is the Time series: Temperature January-December, 1880 - 2005: Global Trend: 0.04 °C/decade (for the arithmetically-challenged that's 12.5 decades for a total of +0.5 °C since 1880). The land temperature-only data (less than 30% of the planet and usually measured around cities) yields a trend of 0.07 °C/decade over the same period for a total increment of 0.875 °C.

A lot of people seem to like an idea of a specific temperature number so here's the National Climatic Data Center's monthly mean temperature record. Rather obviously seasonal change throughout the year dwarfs net increment over one and one-quarter centuries.

Read on here.

LINKS: NZ TO seek links with Asia-Pacific climate group - Radio NZ
The global warming Emperor has no clothes - Professor Bob Carter, courtesy of Climate Science Coalition [9-page PDF]
Skeptic's guide to An Inconvenient Truth - Competitive Enterprise Institute [120-page PDF]
The real 'inconvenient truth' - Junk Science

RELATED: Global Warming, Politics-NZ, Science