The (make believe) PREFU numbers are out: "*this* time it will be different."

The Blue Team is crowing again about a budget surplus. In three years time. They seem to have forgotten their promise three years ago was that we'd be in operating surplus by now.

It's a bit like the old Soviet Five-Year Plans, isn't it. At the Plan's announcement, in those old Soviet days, forecasts were delivered and cast-iron promises made; and then, after five years, the same failures appeared, along with excuses for the failure -- saboteurs/wreckers/bad harvests -- at which point a new Five-Year Plan was announced promising that this time it will be different.

Nicola Willis is in the "this time it will be different" phase.

Because Treasury's crystal-ball waving three years ago forecast that net debt would peak at 22.8% of GDP in 2024/25, then fall. It didn't. It was make-believe, a fantasy: what economist Michael Reddell calls "vapourware."

Because today, net core Crown debt is forecast to peak at 46.1% of GDP in 2027/28. "So the important context is that NZ is now carrying roughly twice as much net debt relative to the size of the economy as the peak Treasury forecast in the 2023 PREFU [i.e., Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update]."

And Michael Reddell reminds us that 

at the 2023 election National promised that the govt would be in budget surplus (& not on a make-believe measure) and that debt would have been falling by now. (Both Labour and National numbers rested on make-believe assumptions. Likely to be true this time too).

The promises, like the forecasts, are worth nothing. Why? Because Treasury is required to report on the basis that the Ministry of Finance told them that a re-elected govt would suddenly 'get religion'" -- would suddenly become fiscally responsible; would suddenly lose the spending bug.

Yeah right. Like that's ever going to happen.

Willis is still spending more than Grant Robertson’s 2019 pre-COVID "Wellbeing Budget," and she has no plans to unwind the post-COVID government bloat.

There is no likelihood of Willis getting the responsibility religion any time soon. 

But maybe this time it will be different.

Krasnov is a criminal

 

"While Trump makes love to Kim Jong Un and betrays U.S. ally South Korea, North Korean ballistic missiles are slamming into Kyiv. 

"Trump blocks Ukraine from buying or making missile interceptors for Patriot air defence systems, helping the Russian/North Korean attacks get through."

~ Michael McKay [cartoon by "KT"]

Let's just save time, shall we

 

Cartoon by Tom Fishburne

"I want to help the poor"

Cartoonist unknown

Laughter

 

"Laughter is a reflex, but unique in that it serves no apparent biological purpose; one might call it a luxury reflex. Its only function seems to be to provide relief from tension.
    "The[re] ... is a striking discrepancy between the nature of the stimulus and that of the response in humorous transactions.
    "When a blow beneath the kneecap causes an automatic upward kick, both 'stimulus' and 'response' function on the same primitive physiological level, without requiring the intervention of the higher mental functions. But that such a complex mental activity as reading a page of Thurber should cause a specific reflex contraction of the facial muscles is a lopsided phenomenon that has puzzled philosophers since Plato. ...
    "Humour is the only form of communication in which a stimulus on a high level of complexity produces a stereotyped, predictable response on the physiological reflex level. Thus the response can be used as an indicator for the presence of the elusive quality that is called humour—as the click of the Geiger counter is used to indicate the presence of radioactivity.
    "Such a procedure is not possible in any other form of art; and, since the step from the sublime to the ridiculous is reversible, the study of humour provides clues for the study of creativity in general."

~ Arthur Koestler, composite quote from his book Act of Creation and his entry on 'Humour' in Encyclopaedia Britannica —using "dense academia-speak" to say that humour has psychological benefits [Cartoons by Thurber. Hat tip Gordon McLauchlan's Acid Test]

Trump's tariff belief "the equivalent of a belief in witches or a belief that the earth is a flat disc balanced atop a tower of turtles."

"I realise that Trump true believers are unpersuadable; this outcome is assured by their blind faith in Trump. But for those of you who still listen to reason and facts, all you need do is to reflect on the fact that Trump believes that U.S. trade deficits in goods with individual countries - such as the U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland - is an economically meaningful concept that reveals that we Americans are 'losing' in our trade with Switzerland. This belief is the equivalent of a belief in witches or a belief that the earth is a flat disc balanced atop a tower of turtles."

~ economist Don Boudreaux

"Politics is the art of announcing what is going to work, then never explaining why it didn’t."

"During those 35 years, I worked under 11 different Prime Ministers, some more memorable than others. ....
    "Looking back it seems that politics is the art of announcing what is going to work, then never explaining why it didn’t."

~ cartoonist Garrick Tremain from his post 'Reminiscing ...'

Things AI can do for us, #137

Making life easier ... 

... the *state* of this nation! [updated]

"Brief thoughts on [the PMs'] 'State of the Nation' [speech]: Focus on economy is good. Saying 'economic growth' a lot & renaming the Economic Development portfolio doesn't do much.  [I'm] confused as to what the role of Invest NZ is compared with NZ Trade & Enterprise (NZTE). 

    "The idea of less saying 'no' is great but it is not a policy or a roadmap. 

    "There was a whole lot of nothing in that speech. Aspiration, ideas, hopes. We need some steel spines & brass balls when it comes to the economy. Nicola & Luxon need to stand up & unapologetically declare that they are going to be brave, bold, ruthless. Spending has to come down. Growth doesn't matter if spending outstrips it. 

    "I am underwhelmed and anxious. I'm a swing voter; past two elections I've voted centre-right. That State of the Nation speech has given me anxiety. With scores of advisors, comms people, ministers etc that was what they came up with? I WANT THE GOVT TO SUCCEED!! Because I want to live in NZ. 

    "That was depressing."

          ~ Ani O'Brien

"Luxon’s ‘going for growth’ just grows the government bureaucracy. ...

    "Christopher Luxon’s State of the Nation speech on the economy strikes, but misses the mark, with no announcements that will increase New Zealand’s productivity, or unshackle the private sector that drives growth. 

    "[T]he speech was more about 'feels' and repeating old announcements than concrete policy changes to improve New Zealand’s prosperity.

    "The only exception is, bizarrely, another government agency, apparently to attract foreign investors.”   

    “The speech represents shifting deck chairs, not the sort of economic reform the times call for.” 

    “People don’t invest in a country because a government agency tells them to. Claims that this model is seen in Ireland or Singapore are fantasy. Investors in those countries don’t have among the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world. Today’s speech would have meant something had it tackled our tax settings or securities law which make investing here so unattractive.”

    “New Zealand’s lack of foreign investment isn’t because of a lack of bureaucrats. It’s because we don’t offer competitive investments. Today’s speech lacks the seriousness or urgency in ‘going for growth’.”
          ~ Jordan Williams

[Hat tip cartoon Dr Stephen Clarke]

UPDATE:

Eric Crampton tries for more optimism. Like Denis De Nuto, it's all about "the vibe," he reckons: 

A shift in vibe has to be backed by more than speeches. The culture in our bureaus and agencies needs to change, along with the regulatory regimes. That will take real work.
    But the shift in vibe is welcome. It’s time to build.

John Key: "...he served himself and not the nation."

Cartoon by Richard McGrail from The Free Radical

"Something which has puzzled me in recent years is the ... dismissive attitude to the John Key government as wasted years. ... The light dawned when 'The Herald' published an astonishingly ignorant but revealing article by Key on why, if an American he’d vote for Trump. ... In a nutshell Key said ... Trump’s promised tax cuts would suffice to determine his vote.
    "The extraordinary thing about Key’s article was its astonishing shallowness. ... 
    "It was only after reading Key’s article that I finally comprehended [the] steadfast derision for the Key years, specifically the wasted opportunity to make meaningful and desired changes ...
    "His likeable affability aided by a wallowing Labour Party saw him able to coast along, enjoying being Prime Minister but blowing the opportunity to make meaningful change. In that sense he served himself and not the nation and ... condemnation has been 100% correct.
    "It’s now evident Key saw being Prime Minister solely in the context of a personal career highlight experience rather than any wider desire to build a better nation."

~ Bob Jones from his post. [Link added]

Freedom v Socialism: What a contrast!

 This (above) was a cartoon in The Press the morning of the National Party's first ever election: the National Party of 1938 fighting proudly for freedom, individualism and sound finance against Labour's old shibboleths of socialism, state regulation, compulsory unionism and borrow-and-squander.

What a contrast to the lachrymose benighted bunch the Blue Team has become now!

What principles would National Labour-Lite ride into battle for today?

Does it have any beyond "power"?

Answers on a postcode, please.

SUNDAY SCHOOL: Penile Subsitution

 

Another one from Jesus and Mo...

The Politician

 

Cartoon by Chuck Asay

Socialism explained

 Cartoon by Nick Kim, originally published in The Free Radical magazine.

From "meaningless phrase" to "a string of 'principles of co-governance'"

Cartoon by Nick Kim, from The Free Radical

"The innocent words 'principles of the Treaty of Waitangi' were included in the State-Owned Enterprises Act only because [David] Lange’s then attorney-general (Geoffrey Palmer) assured the cabinet the phrase was meaningless. Thanks to some judicial musing, this initial phrase became loosely associated with 'partnership.'* About thirty years on, this link was subtly extended to the 'principles of partnership.' Then that meaningless phrase was gradually manipulated into a linkage with co-governance. Now we have He Puapua working on converting that link into a string of 'principles of co-governance'.”

          ~ Barry Brill, from his article 'Does “partnership” mean the same as “marriage”?'

* Cooke P held that "the Treaty created an enduring relationship of a fiduciary nature akin to a partnership, each party accepting a positive duty to act in good faith, fairly, reasonably and honourably towards the other.”

"Yippee! It's the Easter Bunny!!"

It never gets old...

[Cartoon by Nick Kim]

"There is no point in the leaders of global corporations trying to seek accommodation with the likes of Extinction Rebellion. They have not come to praise you for your efforts to decarbonise your activities; they have come to try to bury you." #QotD

Cartoon by Patrick Blower, Daily Telegraph

"There is no point in the leaders of global corporations trying to seek accommodation with the likes of Extinction Rebellion. They have not come to praise you for your efforts to decarbonise your activities nor to offer you advice as to how you can cut the carbon footprint of your company jet; they have come to try to bury you."

~ Ross Clark, from his op-ed 'Kowtowing to Greta won't save woke corporations from the wrath of the anti-capitalist Green movement'
.

"I invited a scientist in to explain the risk of climate change to our company ... "

Can't say I was ever much of a fan of the 'Dilbert' cartoons. But these are amusing ....

* * * * *

[Hat tip Fred Weiss and Louise LaMontagne]

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Bonus Quote of the Day: "I think we are standing in the quicksands of NZ education right now"

 

"I think we are standing in the quicksands of NZ education right now... We are going to be going into a deep, dark place in what I see as a lack of responsibility by the adults for the children in this conversation.
    "I frankly believe that the removal of NCEA Level 1 in the manner that they are describing it - literacy and numeracy and even having a conversation about does financial and civic literacy fit into that definition of literacy - is a very, very dangerous start."~ Auckland Grammar principal Tim O'Connor, commenting on the Government's "radical changes to senior school exams [that he slams] as "dangerous" and "irresponsible."

[Cartoon by Nick Kim]

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I went down to buy a beer today ...

... and of course I was stopped by a group of religious trolls who'd caught the ear of a bully with a clipboard, working when no-one else is allowed to.

Fortunately, you can still get a cold one down at the Pop Up Globe.

Despite the best efforts of the grey ones.

[Cartoon by Nick Kim, courtesy of The Free Radical]

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