 A year ago, Donald Trump stood in the Rose Garden, surrounded by charts nobody understood, and declared war on mathematics. One year later, not even the Rose Garden remains. |
This, above, was one year ago today when Donald Trump stood in the White House's Rose Garden to shoot himself and world trade in the foot.
Today, we 'celebrate' the anniversary of one man's gut feelings over economic reality...
One Year On: The Greatest Economic Own Goal in Living Memory
by Gandalv
One Year On: The Greatest Economic Own Goal in Living Memory
by Gandalv
One year ago, Donald Trump stood in the Rose Garden, surrounded by charts nobody understood, and declared war on mathematics. He called it Liberation Day.
The Financial Times, along with every economist who has read more than a bus ticket, is marking the anniversary with a verdict that should be carved into marble: it failed. On every single front. Spectacularly. Completely. Embarrassingly.
Let us be precise about this.
Measured against Trump’s own three stated goals, making foreigners pay for doing business with America, narrowing the trade deficit, and punishing China, the tariffs have clearly failed. Not partially failed. Not failed with asterisks. Failed the way a man fails when he drives a Reliant Robin the wrong way onto a motorway and acts surprised when it rolls.
And everyone said so. Economists said so. Trading partners said so. His own party said so. The entire field of international trade theory, developed over roughly two centuries by people who actually read things, screamed it from the rooftops. [Even this humble blog said so.] But Donald Trump, a man whose relationship with economics appears to consist entirely of gut feeling, cable television and 6 casino bankruptcies knew better.
The average American household paid an extra $1,700 due to tariffs. Over 65 percent of Americans reported that everyday goods became significantly less affordable. This is what happens when you run the world’s largest economy on instinct and vibes.
One year after the Rose Garden ceremony, factory jobs are down and inflation is up. The precise opposite of what was promised. And promised with extraordinary (and wholly unjustified) confidence.
Then the lawyers arrived.
The Supreme Court found that Trump had exceeded his authority, ruling that the declared emergency bore no rational connection to the trade measures imposed. In other words, the legal foundation was nonsense. The government had collected $166 billion in tariffs from over 330,000 businesses on grounds the Supreme Court found unconstitutional. The refund process is now underway. One hundred and sixty-six billion dollars. Collected illegally. From American businesses.
The financial markets, bless them, responded with the only appropriate tool available: mockery. The meme “Trump Always Chickens Out” refuses to go away, and the TACO index is now actively used by analysts to price in the president’s chronic habit of retreating.
Every serious voice warned this disaster would happen. Trade economists. Former Treasury secretaries. The IMF. The WTO. The EU. Canada. Japan. Basically anyone who had spent more than forty minutes studying how global trade actually works. The man who ignored all of them had previously run a casino into bankruptcy and considered that a learning experience. He was not, it turns out, a fast learner.
One year.
Zero of three goals achieved.
One Supreme Court ruling.
One $170 billion refund.
A world economy paying more for everything and making less of it.
Liberation Day. What a name for it.
The article is TDS and copium unfortunately, written by a person who has no particular knowledge and insight into what he opines about.
ReplyDeleteThe world is in a low level war presently. Expect matters to accelerate to a peak 2028 with a new international structure to begin deploying from 2032. Hopefully it will be better one than what has been the norm until very recently. There is still a long way yet to go. There are great opportunities on offer for those with the foresight and bravery to take them. Unfortunately for the rest it is not so good. Most people are going to suffer- a lot. The standard of living is in decline throughout most parts of the west. It's already baked in. What future do you seek for you and the people closest to you? What are you doing?
The existing financial and so-called "free trade" system is collapsing. It was unsustainable. Its major beneficiaries were acting to abandon it for a replacement which was intended to preserve their positions (looks like that preservation might not happen after all). 47 acted to abandon and tip over fragile international arrangements which do not suit these USA and would have been destructive to it left undisturbed. In the short to medium term that hurts a large cohort of influential grifters. They'll sure make their objections known (as they already have been). They'll get their cut-outs and mouthpieces and useful idiots to write articles such as the one copy pasted to this site today. Ignore it. They have nothing to contribute to your welfare. Reading their stuff and taking it seriously earns you not one cent. Reading their stuff moves you not one centimeter closer to your goals.
Had any of you ever noticed that all the complaining and pessimism and squealing never goes anywhere? There is never a positive result from this activity. It is always exactly the same. Article after article critiquing and complaining when matters fail to proceed as the writer demands they should do. It venting. Waste of time.
What can you do to preserve your standard of living or even improve it. What do you need to do to build your family and your community? What do you need to do to prepare for the challenges and difficulties yet to come? Writing copium and expressing TDS achieves nothing. Complaining, bitching and moaning achieves nothing. Libertarianism (Objectivism included) has been engaged with critique of everyone else for way long time. It is due time to start living in the reality. Do something positive and constructive to advance for yourself.
There was a President, admittedly operating in service to British interests of the time, who on occasions could deliver useful insights. He was Teddy Roosevelt. He said this.
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
Strive to be the doer of deeds instead of simping the whinger critic who complains and bitches and achieves nothing worthwhile for anyone.
Henry J