Copium. Forget about the spiteful utterances. Joining those who indulge in trash talking new developments like this is a mark of the losers.
AI is a useful tool which isn't going away. While it is likely most of the big organisations trying to dominate AI are going to fail (major losses loom for many), AI itself is now established. It will continue to be developed and become more useful with time and investment. Better algos are appearing. Some of the improvements to the processing architecture are stunning, extremely innovative. It is getting more powerful and a lot more useful. We are already using it to generate G-code for CNC machines at work. That's replacing two contractors immediately. Overhead down, efficiency up, errors down, defect generation down, scrappage down, productivity up, profit up. This is just a start. It is a race and we need to participate or get wiped out of business totally. There will be no second place, no runner ups.
It is clear that most white collar jobs and professional jobs are in danger. They are about to be gone. Wiped out. It is happening already. Consider by way of example a law partnership at the big end of town. No longer is it necessary to hire a large cohort of ambitious law graduates to do grunt work for years, gradually working their way up to junior and then senior associate level. All those jobs are gone as well. AI can do everything they could have done at far lower overhead and in much less time. The partnership needs less people than before. Their competitors will push them to deploy AI or else they'll go out of business as their competitors eat their lunch.
The same thing is happening in medicine. Instead of waiting weeks to get a doctor appointment on Zoom and then have the doctor recite from a scripted decision tree what meds you are to be put on, you can get the diagnosis and treatment direct from a medical AI. This is already happening. It turns out the AI is more accurate at diagnosis than a doctor and not by a little either (see articles in The Lancet etc.). Apart from that, AI is near instant. No waiting.
We come to product design, manufacturing, architecture, engineering, logistics, demand response, JIT process, sanitary process, machine coding, insurance assessment and so on. All of the low and medium level "creative" and "decision making" is about to go over to AI. Just as the industrial revolution obsoleted much labour so AI will obsolete much management and process driven activity including much of what is considered "creative" work. There are vanishingly few people who are not going to be affected by this in the short and medium term. Anyone who can't find a new skill or adapt is going to be toast and soon.
It doesn't stop there. Add to AI the rise of robotics. The capabilities are already impressive but the pace of improvements is accelerating. It has been hard to keep up with it all, but if you don't you'll soon be in trouble. The issue is that we are not merely dealing with developments occurring in the USA. It is happening all over. Look to China, Russia, Korea, Japan and so on. It is multipolar and it is even happening in countries where you wouldn't expect to find anything going on. Everything is accelerating as each development from each contributor is learned and incorporated into the next. There is plenty of cross-pollination. You need fast and accurate translation to stay on top of what is coming.
Snearing, retreating into hopium and copium are signs of delusion. Don't waste your efforts with that.
1 comment:
Copium. Forget about the spiteful utterances. Joining those who indulge in trash talking new developments like this is a mark of the losers.
AI is a useful tool which isn't going away. While it is likely most of the big organisations trying to dominate AI are going to fail (major losses loom for many), AI itself is now established. It will continue to be developed and become more useful with time and investment. Better algos are appearing. Some of the improvements to the processing architecture are stunning, extremely innovative. It is getting more powerful and a lot more useful. We are already using it to generate G-code for CNC machines at work. That's replacing two contractors immediately. Overhead down, efficiency up, errors down, defect generation down, scrappage down, productivity up, profit up. This is just a start. It is a race and we need to participate or get wiped out of business totally. There will be no second place, no runner ups.
It is clear that most white collar jobs and professional jobs are in danger. They are about to be gone. Wiped out. It is happening already. Consider by way of example a law partnership at the big end of town. No longer is it necessary to hire a large cohort of ambitious law graduates to do grunt work for years, gradually working their way up to junior and then senior associate level. All those jobs are gone as well. AI can do everything they could have done at far lower overhead and in much less time. The partnership needs less people than before. Their competitors will push them to deploy AI or else they'll go out of business as their competitors eat their lunch.
The same thing is happening in medicine. Instead of waiting weeks to get a doctor appointment on Zoom and then have the doctor recite from a scripted decision tree what meds you are to be put on, you can get the diagnosis and treatment direct from a medical AI. This is already happening. It turns out the AI is more accurate at diagnosis than a doctor and not by a little either (see articles in The Lancet etc.). Apart from that, AI is near instant. No waiting.
We come to product design, manufacturing, architecture, engineering, logistics, demand response, JIT process, sanitary process, machine coding, insurance assessment and so on. All of the low and medium level "creative" and "decision making" is about to go over to AI. Just as the industrial revolution obsoleted much labour so AI will obsolete much management and process driven activity including much of what is considered "creative" work. There are vanishingly few people who are not going to be affected by this in the short and medium term. Anyone who can't find a new skill or adapt is going to be toast and soon.
It doesn't stop there. Add to AI the rise of robotics. The capabilities are already impressive but the pace of improvements is accelerating. It has been hard to keep up with it all, but if you don't you'll soon be in trouble. The issue is that we are not merely dealing with developments occurring in the USA. It is happening all over. Look to China, Russia, Korea, Japan and so on. It is multipolar and it is even happening in countries where you wouldn't expect to find anything going on. Everything is accelerating as each development from each contributor is learned and incorporated into the next. There is plenty of cross-pollination. You need fast and accurate translation to stay on top of what is coming.
Snearing, retreating into hopium and copium are signs of delusion. Don't waste your efforts with that.
Henry J
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