"[O]ver recent decades, the world trading system has drifted into a distorted, sub-optimal equilibrium, shaped by regulatory and political asymmetry, integration clubs and rule-based inertia. ...
"So, while tariffs fell, supply chains over-concentrated. The post-1990s decline in tariffs between different economic structures enabled deep global supply chains. This increased efficiency — but also vulnerability, dependency, and strategic exposure.
"In turn, non-tariff barriers [in the form of excessive internal regulation] rose, especially in the European Union. It seemed like a good idea at the time – for some people – but the reduction in market access for outsiders and entrenching of the local status quo was less transparent. ... the expansion of the European Union from 9 members in the 1980s to today’s 27 ... has privileged trade for insiders, whilst diminishing the relative position of external players. ... amounting to a reversal of the principle of mutual recognition [and] the foundation of liberal trade ... [along with] a deeper recalibration of the global trade order towards more explicit trading blocs (which crucially will need to deregulate internally to grow) ...
"This will not be painless. The transition out of a long-standing but sub-optimal equilibrium rarely is."~ from the uncredited post 'Europe is in trouble – and it’s not just trade'
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