Thoughts on US politics from Johan Norberg, in Sweden ...
So, it’s mourning in America again. Some thoughts:
The real loser is Joe Biden and his advisors. Had he stepped down in time, he would have given Democrats time for a competitive primary to select someone who did not have such a dismal campaign record. History will not be kind. No American I’ve met outside of an organised event was excited by Kamala Harris. And in times of trouble, voters prefer “strength” to “likeability.”
My hunch that she would nonetheless take this was wrong. I remind myself of a taxi driver in Pennsylvania who told me he had thought a lot about Trump’s comment that Harris did not use to be black and now wanted to be black. “He has a way of saying things that just sticks in your mind.” That is disturbing, but should also worry Republicans. They won’t find another bully with that kind of crazed, hypnotic charisma again. When J D Vance or Tucker Carlson say similar things, they just seem weird.
After 2028 Republicans are probably in opposition again. They should prepare by limiting executive powers and strengthening checks and balances. I fear they’ll do the opposite, to unleash the Trump.
And since inflation and high prices decided this election (3/4 of voters said it caused them hardship), perhaps not increase prices even more with tariffs and deportation of a large share of the workforce?
US public debt is 100% of GDP and the government now spends more on interest rates than the military. Trump has promised to make this much worse. In 2050, debt will be 160%. This is an existential risk for the US and the issue’s total absence during the campaign make me think that nothing will happen until there is a catastrophic bond-market event.
As for the Democrats, many claim that voters rejected Harris because of racism and misogyny. Stop it. Exit polls suggest that Harris got fewer female voters than Biden did, and Americans knew that Obama was black before they voted for him twice. Of course, there is a disturbing bias, but this is mostly a way of clinging on to a sense of superiority when you lose, and will only stop you from adapting your agenda to win the next time.
It’s high time to abandon a woke, anti-business progressivism that has been rejected again and again by voters (and fix your cities). I fear that four years under a rude far-right Trump will have the opposite effect on Democrats.
Europe can no longer take America for granted, and has to rebuild its military to provide for its own defense and to support threatened democracies like Ukraine. The right time to start is some 30 years ago.
Trump’s tariffs will primarily hurt Americans. Europe should not respond by hurting Europeans with retaliatory tariffs, but by offering alternative deals that might tempt Trump, and deepen free trade with a global coalition of the willing.
Finally, the silver lining is that Americans suddenly trust their electoral system again, and Trump supporters will not storm the Capitol. At least, that’s something.
Update 1: (Oh, and one more thing: Voters really loathe chaos at the border. For those of us who think our societies thrive on openness, a more orderly, lawful immigration system is absolutely essential.)
Update 2: Foreign policy? Yes, it's scary for sure. The only thing I'd add is that his unpredictability will come into play ... He might hate seeming weak on Ukraine more than he loves Putin. We'll see.
3 comments:
Unpredictability is a strength for a negotiator.!!!!
Yep Trump has been negotiating all his adult life.
So rather than use unpredictability as an Ad hominem, use it as a strength when dealing with major political problems.
You seem to think Trump is a fanboy of Putin. I suggest you look at how he dealt with Kim from Nth Korea. Praised him left right and centre, talked to him face to face.
Then....gave him the ""the threat"", my button is bigger than your button, North Korea backed down.
Under predictable Biden, Nth Korea resumed its developments.
Reminds me of Afghanistan. Trump said its time to withdraw.
Biden then predicted what he was going to do.
Result!! Shambles.
Unpredictability when on the offensive, particularly when in a weaker position is a strength. Your enemies can't guess how you're going to hit them, and may waste energy and resources preparing for offensive action that doesn't come, and then not be ready when it does come. So possibly valid when dealing with North Korea.
Unpredictability when you're stronger and want to defend something (such as Ukraine) is a weakness, because your enemies are tempted to think they may get away with their aggression, and your consistency usually means they won't even try. So in this context, you're completely wrong.
Unpredictability when you're stronger and want to defend something (such as Ukraine) is a weakness,
Someone should have told Kissinger that when he was dealing with the USSR because he thought it worked,
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