tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post6039303653259379972..comments2024-03-29T10:51:27.752+13:00Comments on Not PC: Houston, we have a knowledge problem #Covid19NZ [update 2]Peter Cresswellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10699845031503699181noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-22058145918977210592020-03-26T17:08:11.877+13:002020-03-26T17:08:11.877+13:00P.S. I suspect NZ's outbreaks are very small a...P.S. I suspect NZ's outbreaks are very small and most cases are being caught. NZ's positive rate is 2.5%. That's pretty low. The rate in the US is, on average, 15%. That's extremely high and means there are so many people out there spreading it around. I have more confidence in NZ than you. :P Haha! I just don't like the authoritarian tone and these creepy alerts on our phones and creepy COVID 19 ads from the NZ government. CREEPY! Orwellian.<br />Monicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10223664599729768316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-15759261723969378552020-03-26T17:03:46.987+13:002020-03-26T17:03:46.987+13:00I am pretty sure that because NZ is so behind in i...I am pretty sure that because NZ is so behind in its outbreak compared to other nations that we will benefit from learning what others do and the mistakes they make. The situation in the US is an unmitigated disaster (see this video by an Objectivist doctor). It's understandable why NZ does not want that here. It's a happy, secure little place. "We" do not want all of that disrupted. I get it. I just wish there was a better way. <br /><br />The massive testing in South Korea is only part of the solution. They use very draconian tracking apps to ensure self isolation and case contact tracing. That's what NZ is trying to do "by hand" without the use of technology. It's a difficult task. But in a way, I'd rather be locked down for a month than have all my movements tracked by cell phone in perpetuity for the purposes of "public health."<br /><br />We will get serology testing eventually to see how many people have been infected and asymptomatic. Those tests are rolling out in the UK and have already rolled out in Singapore and South Korea. <br /><br />Despite the fact that I don't like this lockdown from an individual rights perspective, I suspect it will work from a scientific one, and then we can go back to work in a month. It will reduce community transmission *enough* that they can feel confident they can get on top of it once it starts again. <br /><br />Yep, I'm working from home. Rest home volunteering was locked down a few days before step up to Level 4 was announced. Hope you and Carol are well. <3 <br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/video/nyregion/100000007052136/coronavirus-elmhurst-hospital-queens.html?fbclid=IwAR0b1KUkHe9ZFXNxtXsmo0w-W5JgYePqP0GXNymIYp-vSkaILcJfB3uwHa0Monicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10223664599729768316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-12334068875863003542020-03-26T10:52:29.803+13:002020-03-26T10:52:29.803+13:00Thanks Monica. (Have updated the post to link to y...Thanks Monica. (Have updated the post to link to your comment.)<br />It's the "denominator problem," isn't it. Imposssible to even talk properly about rates of anything when you're not testing sufficiently to know that number, and when (as you say) we're still in the epidemic's midst.<br />I'm guessing the piano playing has stopped for the duration?Peter Cresswellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10699845031503699181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-77767019349019099612020-03-26T04:25:07.340+13:002020-03-26T04:25:07.340+13:00Sociliast above is typo for Socialist which means ...Sociliast above is typo for Socialist which means totalatarian mad Government and revolution required. paul scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15675247055484136242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-86566119213939544762020-03-26T04:23:26.542+13:002020-03-26T04:23:26.542+13:00Further, being in a military State over here, ofco...Further, being in a military State over here, ofcourse I can do, say, and think what I like. It's the socilaist democracies which are scary, and you people are going to get it. If I do something really really bad here I might get fined, you know maybe 1000 baht, $50, pay on demand to the smiling Policeman happy family go home no worries.paul scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15675247055484136242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-29720928129976112852020-03-26T04:18:45.954+13:002020-03-26T04:18:45.954+13:00Everything Monica says/writes is bang on. The soci...Everything Monica says/writes is bang on. The societal damage caused by the reaction will be huge. She is not going to catch Wuhan flu in the fresh air. She might catch up with a zombie steroid imbecile Policeman .The tests are not accurate according to all good reports. She has chosen a bad time to come to New Zealand, many of us have left. Tday in Thailand 3 Wuhan deaths, 10 Islamic terror deaths, 25 road deaths, and about 300 of the other 3000 deaths asociated with Respiratory illness, probably including the original [ before Wuhan laboratory ] Corona virus. paul scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15675247055484136242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-35823353826502082812020-03-25T18:38:20.605+13:002020-03-25T18:38:20.605+13:00P.S. Minor quibble: the death rate in Germany is m...P.S. Minor quibble: the death rate in Germany is most likely because they are ascribing cause of death to underlying conditions, not COVID. <br /><br />In South Korea, it's risen from 0.6% to 1.1% and there are a large number of young cases with mild symptoms. It’s also one of the least obese populations in the western world. <br /><br />CFR tends to rise over time because there's a considerable delay from infection to death (on average 23 days). One can't calculate the death rate on day 1, day 14, etc. of an epidemic. We won't know the true death rate or CFR for the covid pandemic until it's all over. <br /><br />That said, we do have enough data to know by now that it kills the old, the obese, the people with comorbidities. This isn’t killing children in very large numbers. If it was, I’d feel much more concerned (but still not concerned enough to shut down civilization).<br /><br />Til now, I’ve been a very strong critic of people who are too Pollyanish about this disease. <br /><br />But being told that I have to stay locked up from making a lifesaving drug, a process that would bring me into contact with NO ONE, because some fat people failed to control their blood pressure (!) is a recipe for hardcore resentment.<br /><br />It bothers me intensely that there’s no clear exit strategy, and that people who should know better are trusting the government (any government) for protection when the government has already screwed up too much.<br /><br />The fear of my friends is turning them into control freaks, and it’s deeply saddening. Monicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10223664599729768316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-38017251760726620462020-03-25T17:39:47.110+13:002020-03-25T17:39:47.110+13:00Yes. I'm learning who can be frightened into v...Yes. I'm learning who can be frightened into violating my rights, and it's not pretty. It includes Objectivist and libertarian types I've known for years. I see through Jacinda and I'm surprised they can't. It's because they are getting fearful and in getting fearful they are getting authoritarian.<br /><br />Principles are for when we are frightened, can't think straight, and are prone to pragmatism. <br /><br />Choosing the initiation of force limits one's imagination and also reveals one's character.<br /><br />Life entails risk. If you are afraid of this - stay home. I have the luxury to stay home the vast majority of the time, but others don't. I have noticed that those pushing strong for the shutdown are those who already have that luxury (they are generally older and rich). It's curious. Monicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10223664599729768316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-32171826157333065542020-03-25T17:25:28.862+13:002020-03-25T17:25:28.862+13:00Peter, I was just going to message you and ask you...Peter, I was just going to message you and ask you what you think about all of this. Then I decided to go here and see instead. I agree. 100%. And that's from someone who has been harping from day one, practically (late January) on what a serious thing this disease is. But I didn't move to this country to see it become a full-on police state with people cowering in fear like where I came from. I already see nobody for practically months on end, but now I've got to ride my bike (which I just bought for the purpose) 10 km to work (where I see not a single other person because I'm the only employee) so I can avoid being in a car, so I can avoid being stopped my police and asked questions? Yesterday they said we could drive to the beach. Today, no, and there may be military on the streets. Is this North Korea? I can use the exercise, but what if there are further restrictions and I can't even bike? How long is this to go on? What if a vaccine is never developed? People will die if I don't get my product out, but those lives aren't counted here. Central authority cannot plan these things. Period. I hope serology testing comes rapidly online very soon so we can see how many asymptomatic there are, and I bet it will be a lot, given the recent research (50%-75%). Which is the reason for all of this. They now have confirmation that they can't stop the spread by focusing on symptoms. Yet the mortality data are very, very clear. The vast majority at risk are elderly or with comorbidities. Not the young. These people will have to protect themselves if the world is to function to earn the income to pay for their benefits. We cannot put ourselves in a time capsule, causing a Great Depression, and completely retreating from society to prevent the death rate from doubling one year out of a hundred. There has to be another way.Monicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10223664599729768316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11906042.post-54855945036869992052020-03-25T14:19:48.256+13:002020-03-25T14:19:48.256+13:00It's a shame that neither the media nor the as...It's a shame that neither the media nor the asleep-at-the-wheel opposition are calling out the government for their shameless use of this issue to implement their hideous agenda that has nothing to do with coronavirus. They have already admitted that the pointless and morally repugnant benefit rises are permanent, and only the incredibly foolish would expect the new raft of rules for landlords will be rolled back any time soon. But of course who would expect this to be called out by the Jacinda cheerleaders who slavishly wet their pants about anything this incompetent shower of losers who have never worked a day in their life in honest businesses do. twrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10312229399327994398noreply@blogger.com